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China, the United States, and the Global Economy

Rand Corporation

Contents

Foreword............................................................................................................................................................................iiiAcronyms............................................................................................................................................................................xiChapter One CHINA, THE UNITED STATES, AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Shuxun Chen, China Reform Forum, and Charles Wolf, Jr., RAND..............................1Part I: Outlook for the Global EconomyChapter Two TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Gary Hufbauer, Institute for International Economics.......................................................................11Chapter Three WORLD ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND CHINA'S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION Yuanzheng Cao, BOC International Holdings Ltd......................................................25Discussant: Benjamin Zycher, RAND...................................................................................................................................................45Part II: Outlook for the U.S. EconomyChapter Four CAN THE UNITED STATES' ECONOMIC SUCCESS CONTINUE? Gail Fosler, The Conference Board..................................................................................49Part III: Trends and Prospects in the Chinese EconomyChapter Five CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH: RECENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS K. C. Yeh, RAND.................................................................................................69Chapter Six THE CHINESE ECONOMY IN PROSPECT Angang Hu, Chinese Academy of Sciences................................................................................................99Chapter Seven THE ROLE OF FOREIGN-INVESTED ENTERPRISES IN THE CHINESE ECONOMY: AN INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION APPROACH Yasheng Huang, Harvard Business School........................147Chapter Eight CHINA'S MACROECONOMY: EXPANDING DOMESTIC DEMAND AND INTERIM REFORMS Xiaomin Shi, China Society for Research on Economic System Reform...............................193Discussant: Alice Young.............................................................................................................................................................205Part IV: U.S.-China Economic and Security RelationsChapter Nine CHINA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY: THE SHORT MARCH FROM ISOLATION TO MAJOR PLAYER Harry S. Rowen, Asia Pacific Research Center, and Hoover Institution.....................211Chapter Ten AMERICAN INTERESTS IN AND CONCERNS WITH CHINA John Despres, Private Consultant........................................................................................227Discussant: Shuxun Chen.............................................................................................................................................................233Chapter Eleven SINO-U.S. ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS Xianquan Xu, MOFTEC.........................................................................................................237Discussant: Hang-Sheng Cheng........................................................................................................................................................253Chapter Twelve U.S.-CHINA: BONDS AND TENSIONS Hui Wang, First China Capital.......................................................................................................257Conference Agenda...................................................................................................................................................................289List of Participants................................................................................................................................................................291Biographical Summaries of Chapter Authors...........................................................................................................................................295

Chapter One

ABOUT THIS BOOK

From 1998 through 2000, the China Reform Forum (CRF) in Beijing and RAND in Santa Monica have jointly organized an annual conference of experts from China and the United States, focusing on economic and security subjects of mutual concern. Venues of the three conferences alternated between Beijing and Santa Monica, and conference participants included practitioners as well as scholars from both countries.

This book contains the papers delivered at the 1999 conference in Santa Monica, California, whose theme, "China, the United States, and the Global Economy," provides the book's title. The conference agenda and list of participants appear at the end of this volume.

The broad theme was deliberately chosen to provide ample scope to address both economic and security interests and concerns of the United States and China. While the theme was overly ambitious, it allowed participants to address both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the subject: quantitative data relating to trade and investment, both bilaterally between China and the United States, and multilaterally between them and the rest of the world; and qualitative considerations such as those relating to China's (and Taiwan's) membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as the convergent and divergent security interests of China and the United States.

The principal objective of the 1999 CRF-RAND conference was to compare analysis and judgments from both sides about the economic outlook for each of the three entities referred to in the conference title-China, the United States, and the Global Economy. Associated with but subsidiary to this aim, the conference papers and accompanying discussions considered the extent to which the economic outlook in each of the three entities is dependent on, or independent of, that for the other two.

OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTERS

In Chapter Two, Dr. Gary Hufbauer examines the outlook for the global economy. He projects relatively rapid growth in some countries and regions, but not in others. These differences he ascribes to four principal "drivers": macroeconomic stability, the rule of law, privatization and the market economy, and international trade and investment. Hufbauer's "bottom-line" assessment is that East Asia is likely to be the world's most rapidly growing region, while the rich Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will sustain reasonably good rates of growth, (about 1.8 percent per capita per year). He concludes that "one thing that will not happen ... is a blissful convergence between rich and poor countries." Some of the poorer countries in East Asia will move toward convergence, but most will not.

It is no surprise that Dr. Hufbauer finds that sustained growth and prosperity in the American economy will redound to China's benefit through its stimulus to China's exports to the United States. However, he also suggests that China's economic development will be more affected by factors other than the buoyancy of the American economy: for example, by streamlining and genuinely privatizing China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), extending the rule of law, and enforcing property rights and contracts. In turn, the economic outlook in the United States is likely to depend much more on domestic...