Isbn: 9781529408690 - how to expect the unexpected: the science of making smart predictions (14 Ergebnisse)

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023'Delightfully clear and vivid to read.A splendid book! Philip Pullman'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?· How do you prevent a nuclear war?Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?). For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.…

Paperback. Zustand: New. Paperback. Publisher overstock, may contain remainder mark on edge.

Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.

Zustand: Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.

PAP. Zustand: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

Zustand: New.

Zustand: acceptable. Ausreichend/Acceptable: Exemplar mit vollständigem Text und sämtlichen Abbildungen oder Karten. Schmutztitel oder Vorsatz können fehlen. Einband bzw. Schutzumschlag weisen unter Umständen starke Gebrauchsspuren auf. / Describes a book or dust jacket that has the complete text pages (including those with maps or plates) but may lack endpapers, half-title, etc. (which must be noted). Binding, dust jacket (if any), etc may also be worn.…

Zustand: very good. Gut/Very good: Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit wenigen Gebrauchsspuren an Einband, Schutzumschlag oder Seiten. / Describes a book or dust jacket that does show some signs of wear on either the binding, dust jacket or pages.

Paperback. Zustand: Brand New. 448 pages. 5.04x1.34x7.56 inches. In Stock.

Zustand: New. 2024. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland.

Zustand: New. In English.

Zustand: Very Good.

Taschenbuch. Zustand: Neu. Neuware - A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023'Delightfully clear and vivid to read.A splendid book! Philip Pullman'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting How do you prevent a nuclear war Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain ). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks ). For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.…

Zustand: NEW.