Formal methods in policy formulation. the application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations.

Thls collectlon of papers owes Its orlgin to arecent conference on the toplc of dec­ ision analysis organised by the Royal Economlc Socfety, durlng the per Iod when one of us {H.T.} served as Programme Secretary for the Socfety. The papers Included here were selected especially for the contrfbutfon they made to the fmplementatfon of decislon analytlc methods In the field of pol fcy formulation. These selected con­ ference papers have furthermore been supplemented by several fnvited contrlbutions In order to provide a more complete exposition of the overall theme. Thus, the volume now contalns a set of original papers whlch we bel feve contribute slgnlficantly to the most Important aspects of this toplc. The work is grouped into two parts. Part I contalns a critique of analytical meth­ ods In pollcy formulatlon and defines the essential characterlstlcs of the pollcy process. Although we advocate the declslon analysis approach Insofar as It provfdes what we consfder to be the most acceptable paradfgm for rational action, we do so' onlyon the balance of its merfts, based upon our personal experience of consulting work In the Decislon Analysis Unft at the London Business School. The papars Inclu­ ded In thfs first part represent, therefore, a dlspassionate evaluation of the place of analytical methods in the effectlve formulation of pol fcy. Part 2 looks at some of the more important aspects In the Implementation of the decisfon analysis approach.