Wiley aug 1987 (2 Ergebnisse)

Buch. Zustand: Neu. Neuware - Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are made intuitively that is, without apparent reasoning and almost instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise choice, which accounts for almost all real decision-making activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on decision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in that it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear and non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitive judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of learning the limits to one s judgmental a bility. The purpose of this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be of great value to all decision makers in commerce, government service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents Preface; - The nature of human judgement; - Randomness and the probabilistic environment; - Combining information for prediction; - Combining information for evaluation and choice; - Choice under uncertainty; - On learning relations; - The role of memory in judgement; - Creativity, imagination, and choice; - Problem structuring and decision aids; - Human judgement an overview; Appendices; Index Reviews of the First Edition I believe that Professor Hogarth s book will prove to be of historical importance in the development of the field of human judgement. R.M. Corbin, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. Hogarth has given us a clear, integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the direct practical implications of the findings. Terry Connolly, ASQ, June 1982.…

Buch. Zustand: Neu. Neuware - Each volume of this series heralds profound changes in both the perception and practice of chemistry. This edition presents the state of the art of all important methods of instrumental chemical analysis, measurement and control. Contributions offer introductions together with sufficient detail to give a clear understanding of basic theory and apparatus involved and an appreciation of the value, potential and limitations of the respective techniques. The emphasis of the subjects treated is on method rather than results, thus aiding the investigator in applying the techniques successfully in the laboratory.…