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Hardcover. Zustand: Good. This monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than changing the colour of the dress. Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the laws of the medium numbers - which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:* The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on naive empiricism, but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.* The empirical distribution is rarely empirical.* Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.* Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.* Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.* Many biases found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions* Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.Hardcover. The book is a little bumped at extremities, but the contents are very good. xiv, 441 pages, including index. Size 23.5 x 15.8 x 2.7 cm. Copyright © STEM Academic Press.…

Taschenbuch. Zustand: Neu. Neuware - This STEM Volume gathers a selection of research papers on COVID-19 using a complex systems approach. Methods include agent-based models, cellular automata, networks, population dynamics, spatial-temporal patterns, risk management, analysis of fat-tails, data analysis and visualization. A few examples are: (i) Discussions about policies and strategies against outbreaks in the context of uncertainty and incomplete information. (ii) Analysis and proper understanding of probability and its role in decision-making against contagion outbreaks. (iii) Different approaches to model the spread of a virus in a population using simulations. (iv) Applications with observational data to include natural patterns of human behavior into modeling and decision-making frameworks.…