9780691128719 - expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know? von tetlock, philip e. (12 Ergebnisse)
Sprache: Englisch
Verlag: Princeton University Press (edition New Ed), 2006
- Softcover
Anbieter: BooksRun, Philadelphia, PA, USABooksRun
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Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. New Ed. It's a well-cared-for item that has seen limited use. The item may show minor signs of wear. All the text is legible, with all pages included. It may have slight markings and/or highlighting.
- Softcover
Anbieter: ThriftBooks-Atlanta, AUSTELL, GA, USAThriftBooks-Atlanta
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Paperback. Zustand: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Wonder Book, Frederick, MD, USAWonder Book
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Zustand: Good. Good condition. A copy that has been read but remains intact. May contain markings such as bookplates, stamps, limited notes and highlighting, or a few light stains.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, USABetter World Books: West
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Zustand: Very Good. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, USABetter World Books: West
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Zustand: Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
- Softcover
Anbieter: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, USAWorld of Books (was SecondSale)
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Zustand: Good. Item in good condition. Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Wonder Book, Frederick, MD, USAWonder Book
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Zustand: Very Good. Very Good condition. A copy that may have a few cosmetic defects. May also contain light spine creasing or a few markings such as an owner's name, short gifter's inscription or light stamp.
- Softcover
- Erstausgabe
Anbieter: True Oak Books, Highland, NY, USATrue Oak Books
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Paperback. Zustand: Good. 6 X 0.75 X 9.25 inches; 321 pages; minor pen markings in the margins on about 30% of pages. Very Good condition otherwise. No other noteworthy defects. ; - Your satisfaction is our priority. We offer free returns and respond promptly to all inquiries. Your item will be packaged with care and ship on the… same or next business day. Buy with confidence. First Paperback Edition; Twelfth Printing.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Wonder Book, Frederick, MD, USAWonder Book
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Zustand: As New. Like New condition. A near perfect copy that may have very minor cosmetic defects.
Sprache: Englisch
Verlag: Princeton University Press, United States, New Jersey, 2006
- Softcover
Anbieter: WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, Vereinigtes KönigreichWorldofBooks
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EUR 23,73
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Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts ar…e often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.
- Softcover
Anbieter: PsychoBabel & Skoob Books, Didcot, Vereinigtes KönigreichPsychoBabel & Skoob Books
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EUR 22,88
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Paperback. Zustand: Very Good. Paperback in very good condition. Very faint mark to front and light wear to spine head, otherwise like new. AD. Used.
- Softcover
Anbieter: Revaluation Books, Exeter, Vereinigtes KönigreichRevaluation Books
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EUR 43,80
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Paperback. Zustand: Brand New. new ed edition. 352 pages. 9.25x6.00x0.75 inches. In Stock.
