The Secrets of Economic Indicators

“This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics.”

–The Wall Street Journal

“This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.”

–David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s

“I find Baumohl’s writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn’t heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who’s serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic.”

–Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter

“Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.”

–Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors

“Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios. Most important, Bernie’s long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the ‘dismal science’ lively and interesting.”

–Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.

“Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances.”

–Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference

“I think this is an excellent book. It’s well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use.”

–D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

“Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys. Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work–an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well.”

–Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)

“If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics . . . he knows what he’s talking about, and his expertise proves it.”

–Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute

COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE

TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM!

Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don’t need an economics degree, or a CPA–just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition!

Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You’ll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions.

Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses–including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable.

• New! Today’s 10 most crucial leading indicators

Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit

• Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators

New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more

• Emerging foreign indicators you need to track

From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond

• Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

• Finding the data

Free Web resources for the latest economic data

• Which economic indicators really matter right now?

• What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio?

• How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions?

• Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind!

• By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist

New edition, with extensive new coverage:

• Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts

• New examples and up-to-the-minute data

• Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics

• More international coverage

• New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more

About the Author xiii

What’s New in the Second Edition? xv

Preface xvii

Acknowledgments xxiii

Chapter 1        The Lock-Up 1

Chapter 2        A Beginner’s Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17

Chapter 3        The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25

Chapter 4        International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325

Chapter 5        Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373

Chapter 6        Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 381

Index 387

Bernard Baumohl is managing director of The Economic Outlook Group and oversees its forecasts of economic trends and risks. He also conducts seminars on how to find and utilize economic indicators so that corporate leaders and investors can stay ahead of the business curve. Baumohl was an award-winning TIME Magazine economics reporter for two decades and covered the domestic and international economy from TIME’s New York and Washington bureaus. As an economist for European American Bank, he monitored and developed forecasts of U.S. economic activity. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. A frequent guest on television and radio, he has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance. A recipient of the John Hancock Award for Excellence in Financial Journalism, Baumohl has a master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.