Path to a Better World

iUniverse, Inc.

Contents

CHAPTER 1 Prelude to Abundance....................................1CHAPTER 2 The Vision and the Reality..............................7CHAPTER 3 Free Market Capitalism..................................19CHAPTER 4 Peoples' Capitalism.....................................47CHAPTER 5 The Science and Technology Enablers.....................77CHAPTER 6 The Energy Enabler......................................105CHAPTER 7 The Common Defense......................................119CHAPTER 8 Benefits to Humankind...................................131

Chapter One

Intelligent systems technology is developing rapidly, and the rate of development is increasing exponentially. The next generation of advanced automation, particularly human-level artificial intelligence, raises serious social and economic questions. Truly intelligent machines will have the potential to eliminate poverty and usher in a new age of prosperity, opportunity, and economic justice. But they also have the potential to throw people out of work and widen the gap between rich and poor. A way to assure that the result is positive is to broaden access to credit for investment so that everyone can play the capitalist game with income from ownership of capital assets. This book is a plan to make that happen.

Our modern civilization is poised on the cusp of an information technology revolution that will at least equal, if not far exceed, the Industrial Revolution in its impact on humankind. The question is: Will the effect be for good or evil? What will the world be like when most goods and services are produced by intelligent machines? On the one hand, there is a possibility that exponential productivity growth could produce rapid economic growth, leading to an age of unprecedented prosperity. On the other hand, there are questions such as: Who will own these machines? How will displaced workers get an income? What is the potential for rising unemployment, poverty, and civil unrest?

From the beginning of human existence, mankind has lived under an ancient biblical curse: "By the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground." In all the thousands of centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution, most of the human race lived near the threshold of survival. Virtually all economic wealth was created by the sweat and muscle power of humans and domestic animals. The substitution of mechanical energy for muscle power during the industrial revolution partially lifted the ancient curse. A little more than two centuries after the introduction of steam power into the manufacturing process, a large percentage of the population of the world lives in a manner that far surpasses the wildest utopian fantasies of former generations.

The technology of the Industrial Revolution, combined with the emergence of capitalism, has produced a dramatic increase in the rate of economic growth. This led to a degree of prosperity never before experienced during the entire history of the human species. Indoor plumbing, cotton sheets and underwear, flush toilets, clear glass windows, central heating and air conditioning, automobiles, the telephone, radio, and TV are commonplace. Machines powered by electricity and the internal combustion engine largely replaced muscle power in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, mining, and transportation. An exponential increase in scientific and technological knowledge resulted in productivity improvements that have enabled the production of goods and services at a rate far in excess of any historical precedent.

The machines of the Industrial Revolution required human workers to control them, and the processes of commerce required humans to manage them. By virtue of their indispensability, workers have often been able to demand fair compensation for their labor through collective bargaining. During the twentieth century, this led to the emergence of a prosperous middle class.

However, this is beginning to change. The information technology revolution is based on the substitution of computers for human brains in the control of machines and industrial processes. The application of information technology to the control of industrial processes and business management will bring into being a new generation of machines—intelligent machines that can create wealth largely unassisted by human beings.

There is good reason to believe that the information revolution will change the history of the world more dramatically than the Industrial Revolution. Factories and industries that can operate mostly unattended by human workers are already technically feasible and are becoming economically practical. Many of these factories even reproduce their own essential components. Machine tools are used to make machine tools. Computers are indispensable to the design and manufacture of computers. Factories produce the structural materials and tools that are used to build new factories. Modern manufacturing machines and processes are able to construct extremely complex parts directly from computer data files. This suggests that manufactured goods may eventually become as inexpensive and unlimited by complexity as the products of biological mechanisms in living organisms. The potential long-run effects of this are profound and unprecedented.

The present economic system is not structured to deal with the implications of the coming generations of advanced automation. Classical economic theory is based on the labor theory of value. For the vast majority of the population, jobs are the primary source of income. The owners of the means of production represent only a tiny fraction of the population. This socio-economic structure is not well suited for a world where intelligent machines will perform most of the work necessary for the production of goods and services without human intervention. As machine intelligence grows, capital will replace labor as the principal factor in the production equation. The percentage of the population needed for producing all the goods and services that can be sold in the market will decline, unemployment will grow, and wages and salaries will experience steady downward pressures. Unless there emerges new mechanisms by which wealth can be distributed to average people, economic growth will slow, poverty will increase, and a few very rich owners of capital will grow fabulously wealthy.

The problem is that there presently exists no means by which average people can fully benefit from the unprecedented productive potential of truly intelligent machines—quite to the contrary. Under the present economic system, the widespread deployment of automated production systems will enable companies to lay off workers, reduce labor costs, minimize pension funds and increase profits in ways that threaten jobs and undermine the financial security of virtually every American family. In general, investors do not fund corporations to provide employment for workers. They are established to generate profits for owners.

There are two possible futures depending on how ownership of the means of production is distributed among the population.

One is to continue the current economic system wherein a small group of capitalists own most of the capital assets, and businesses increase their profitability by getting rid of workers. In this future, the gap...