The Long View of Crime

Criminology is concerned with many questions which are inherently longitudinal. For example, what is the life-course of criminal behavior? Is there one general offending pattern or multiple offending patterns over time? Which early risk factors, if any, are strongly predictive of criminal behavior? Can early intervention prevent the development of a criminal career?

Longitudinal research allows examination of within-person relationships over time, and allows the examination of developmental sequences and timing. This volume examines longitudinal research in relation to crime and delinquency.

The main body of Longitudinal Studies on Crime and Delinquency is seven reviews, which were commissioned to answer two simultaneous questions: What have we learned from recent longitudinal research on crime and delinquency that (a) we did not know before, and (b) that capitalizes on the longitudinal nature of the data? Topics for review were chosen with an eye to three considerations: (a) a critical mass of studies addresses the question; (b) an emphasis on longitudinal methods; (c) policy relevance of the question.

Three additional chapters include an introduction and overview, an essay reflecting on the findings highlighted in the volume from the broad perspective of the evolutionary ecological theory of crime, and a Future Directions chapter.

The volume also includes an appendix which relates each of the reviews to the body of longitudinal studies reviewed in the volume. This not only shows which studies have informed which topics, but also highlights analytic opportunities that have not yet been explored and where this information could be applied in future research.

Criminology has long been concerned with many questions that are inherently longitudinal. What is the developmental life-course of criminal behavior? Is there one general offending pattern or multiple offending patterns? Which early risk factors, if any, are strongly predictive of criminal behavior? Do particular interventions prevent or retard future criminal behavior?

Longitudinal research following individuals over many years has unique potential to answer such questions, although such studies take many years to conduct. Many longitudinal studies of crime and delinquency initiated since the 1980s have produced hundreds of published papers, providing an unprecedented opportunity to address such questions.

What have we learned? The six reviews in The Long View of Crime synthesize findings from about 200 papers from over 60 longitudinal studies. Three considerations guided the choice of topics for review: (a) a critical mass of studies; (b) an emphasis on longitudinal methods; and (c) policy relevance.

The volume focuses on adolescence. Several adolescent experiences are considered directly, including employment, gang involvement, and first arrests. Adolescence is also considered in relation to early childhood, from a focus on the end of adolescence, and as situated in the longer context of criminal careers.

The volume begins with an introduction and executive summary, and concludes with a chapter considering future directions in using longitudinal research to study causes of delinquency. In addition, an Appendix lists each longitudinal study in the volume along with essential study features, and cross-lists the studies with the reviews. This shows which longitudinal studies informed each topic, and also indicates analytic opportunities not yet explored.