Titel: Defying the Market: Profiting in the ...
Verlag: McGraw-Hill Trade
Zustand des Schutzumschlags: Dust Jacket Included
Auflage: 1st Edition
Über diesen Titel
Research shows that the rate of technological progress is actually slowing as we near the new millennium and this will have a profound effect on the investment picture. In Defying the Market, the influential editor of Personal Finance newsletter (180,000-circulation) reveals his investment strategies for profiting in the next market wave. Packed with specific stock and mutual fund selections that any investor can implement quickly and easily, it features a model stock portfolio poised for growth in the post tech world. The book also shows investors which global factors will be most important to their financial future, and analyzes the four key investment plays likely to explode in the post technology boom.Review:
In the world of technology, one of the best-known maxims is Moore's Law, a 1965 prediction by the cofounder of Intel, which states that computer chips will double in speed and power every 18 months. For many, Moore's Law has come to symbolize the idea that all aspects of technology--from medicine to weather prediction--will continue to move forward at the startling rates we've grown used to. In Defying the Market, investment guru Stephen Leeb presents a different interpretation. He notes that people back in the 1960s continued smoking, even when they knew it would make them sick, because they felt sure science would find a cure for cancer by the time they got it. As we all know, the cure hasn't been found, and Deeb feels that most technological innovation has in fact ground to a halt. Science, he argues, is limited by the fact it depends on computers to make new discoveries. But we can't really make computers any smarter--only cheaper and faster.
In addition to a technological slowdown, Leeb also sees an unabating demand for worldwide economic growth. Put these two phenomena together, and you've got inflation, which is not entirely bad news for investors. He predicts that oil and gold stocks will rise from the modest positions they've held in the low-inflation '90s; that computer stocks like Dell and Gateway will falter because, as prices rise, users won't feel a need to pay for incremental improvements in speed and whiz-bangery; and that while only the largest tech companies--such as Microsoft and Cisco--will continue to profit, food companies such as Pioneer Hi-Bred and tractor maker Deere Co. are better bets.
This is one of the most contrarian, challenging books an investor can read. One can imagine the rebuttals pouring in from the scientific, economic, and investment worlds. But if he's right, those who heed Leeb's advice stand to make more money than a Deere tractor can pull. --Lou Schuler
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