CHAPTER 1
Conflict in History Study of the Mexican (- American) War 1846-1848
By Dennis Glenn Collins
7108 Grand Blvd.
Hobart, IN 46342-6628
Jan. 10, 2020
This study of the Mexican (-American) War 1846-1848 is based on the author's 1971 paper "Conflict in History," whereby events supposedly favorable to one side (in this case the United States) are charted above the horizontal axis and events apparently favorable to the other side (Mexico) are graphed below the horizontal or time axis, which in this case is divided into years. Please see Figure 1.
The dates of deaths of U.S. Presidents and past presidents are taken to calibrate the study, namely at the plus and minus two periods, the death of Andrew Jackson June 8, 1845 and James Polk June 15, 1849, both from Tennessee and symbolic of American expansion Westward. Additionally at points favorable to Mexico are the deaths of Pres. Zachary Taylor July 9, 1850 and John Quincy Adams Feb. 23, 1848. This pattern continued in U.S. dealings with Latin America with the 1901 assassination of McKinley after the Spanish-American War of 1898 and John Kennedy in 1963 after the 1962 Bay of Pigs invasion. Teddy Roosevelt died after an expedition into the Amazon.
The decision point therefore comes out about June 11, 1847, favorable to the U.S. The successful campaign of Gen. Winfield Scott into Mexico from March 9, 1 847 (Veracruz) to Sept. 14, 1847 (Mexico City) three months before and after June 11, 1847 more or less bracket this decision point, following up a victory in at Buena Vista Feb. 22-23, 1847 by Zachary Taylor in northern Mexico. Also near the decision point July 1847 the Mormons settled around Salt Lake City, Utah. Thus the decision point can be taken as the success of the "Manifest Destiny" of the U.S. to win the West.
The supposed one-year advance of Mexican interests took place from December 1845 to December 1846. This year saw Mexico with a certain moral advantage since it was understood the entrance of Texas into the Union, as happened Dec. 29, 1845, would mean war with the U.S. The actual war was declared by Congress May 13, 1846 after the so-called Thornton affair saw 16 Americans die after a clash April 25, 1846. In spite of Mexican defeats at the hand of Zachary Taylor at Palo Alto May 8 and Resaca de la Palma May 9, 1846, Mexico under Santa Anna seems to have recovered sufficiently to outnumber Zachary Taylor's troops 4 to 1 at the above-mentioned battle of Buena Vista, Feb. 22-23, 1847. There was also opposition in the U.S. Congress to the Mexican War, which was seen as a scheme to increase slave-holding territory.
Along these lines, Abraham Lincoln's Dec. 22, 1847 "Spot" Resolutions against Pres. Polk were supposedly at a period favorable to Mexico. However these were dropped and the period Dec. 1847 to Dec. 1848 saw a one-year advance of U.S. "Manifest Destiny" interests, ending with the election of Zachary Taylor as President in
© 2010 Dennis Glenn Collins
Nov. 1848, even though he hadn't bothered to vote. The one-year advance saw the discovery of gold in California, Jan. 24, 1848 (leading to the Gold Rush), and the addition of the territory, including Texas and California, sought by Pres. Polk at the Treaty of Gaudalupe-Hidalgo Feb. 2, 1848 under the questionable direction of Nicholas Trist. Actually this treaty could be considered as under the period favorable to Mexico, since some Americans wanted to annex all of Mexico, an interesting possibility considering present difficulties. Also as part of the one-year advance the Oregon dispute with Britain was mostly settled.
At a point favorable to the U.S., Nov. 1844, James Polk was elected Pres. of the United States. Further topics for study include supposedly favorable events Dec. 1849 and events at the so-called "future" points, approximately Feb. 1846 and Oct. 1847.
Remark: Also the supposed "high points" of the Mexican side could be studied more. These Mexican high points are somewhat limited because at the 25-years cycle, the U.S. was at a high (1848) in between the lows of the Alamo (1836) and the Civil War (1861). Consequently the Mexican high points are significantly attenuated.
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico Jan 10, 2010.
Dennis G. Collins
CHAPTER 2
Bin Laden Study
By Dennis G. Collins
1519 S. State Rd 119 Apt. 2
Winamac, IN 46996-8550
Sept. 24, 2011
According to the author's 1971 theory "Conflict in History," the chart plots events involving the death of Al Qaeda leader Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, with events favorable to the U.S. plotted above the time-coordinate axis and events favorable to Al Qaeda plotted below the t-axis in 27-day periods. The decision point around June 24, 2011 favorable to Al Qaeda appears to be the U.S. move to draw down troops in Afghanistan, announced by Obama at a "future point" July 4, 2011. The U.S. high points at the +/-2 period points are the deaths of Bin Laden May 1and supposed #2 man al-Rahman Aug. 22. A U.S. low point was the shooting down of a Navy Seal team Aug. 5, 2011 at the +1.5 period point.
CHAPTER 3
Conflict in History Study of World War I
By Dennis G. Collins, 7108 Grand Blvd., Hobart, IN 46342-6628 Urb. Mayaguez Terrace, 6009 Calle R. Martinez Torres, Mayaguez, PR 00682-6630
This analysis of World War I (Please see Figure 1.) is based on the author's 1971 paper "Conflict in History," which graphs "warp" above the time axis as favorable to one side, and "warp" below the axis as favorable to the other sides in a conflict, according to the formula: f(x)= exp(-(.75*t)^2/2)*(cos(2*Pi*t)*(4*(.75*t)^2-2)). Here events favorable to the Allies (Britain, France, Russia, later the United States (April 6, 1917), Italy and others) supposedly come above the time axis and events favorable to the Central Powers (Germany, Austro-Hungary, later the Ottoman Empire — Turkey — and others) supposedly come below the time axis. More generally, the war can be considered as a conflict between democracy (top) and empire (bottom). With his "war to end wars," Woodrow Wilson played the role of...