CHAPTER 1
Displaced Persons and Central American Recuperation and Development
Sergio Aguayo
Introduction
The cessation of hostilities in Central America will not automatically bring about a return to normal life. Central America has changed profoundly. Ten years of war have devastated the economies, altered the political systems, displaced societies and modified international relations. Peace—a gradual and irregular process—requires reconstruction and development, and these present enormous challenges.
The number of displaced persons is immense. Estimates run from 1.8 million to 2.8 million people. This represents varying percentages of each country's population: between 3 and 7.5 percent of Guatemalans and between 25 and 29 percent of Salvadorans. Their existence presents us with difficult challenges in humanitarian, economic, political, legal, and international terms.
This chapter is based on a simple assumption: peace does not automatically resolve the problems of this displaced population. Undoubtedly peace is the basis for any lasting solution, but the duration and scale of the demographic movements have given them autonomy. The violence could diminish or cease, but the Central American demographic map has been modified—in some ways irreversibly. The implications of these changes are as yet difficult to determine.
In the past few years great efforts have been made to identify and understand the characteristics of this phenomenon, and the literature is vast and diverse. There are newspaper articles, reports of all kinds, and some fifty academic works on the subject of demographic changes involving Central America, Mexico and the United States. The accumulated knowledge is considerable but still insufficient. To begin with, there is a fundamental problem: we do not know the exact number of displaced persons. Except for the 116,008 refugees recognized by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), estimates are based upon mere appraisals.
On the other hand, the existing works have been dedicated, above all, to describing the phenomenon and defending the Central Americans. Therefore, they have emphasized the political, international, and legal aspects of the refugees. Few works review the economic impact of the displacements of people, and those that exist are not sufficient to permit valid generalizations in terms of all countries.
In the literature about the massive flow of Central Americans, it is correctly assumed that the best solution for the displaced is the return to their place of origin. Nonetheless, the studies on this and other migrations have emphasized the situation in the receiving countries even though the conditions in the countries of origin will determine repatriation. The return to peace and the reconstruction of economies and communities are the central factors.
In the following discussion (which presents only the broadest and most general concepts), the variety of situations and the great number of actors involved in the phenomenon should also be taken into account. In the arena of the displaced Central Americans, the participants include regional and European governments, international organizations like the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), political institutions, religious groups, and private development agencies.
In view of the above, it is difficult to establish recommendations for the future. Still, it is essential to begin to explore the links between displaced persons and reconstruction and development. Achieving a satisfactory response to the challenges presented by the displaced Central American population would be an historic step forward that could serve in confronting the phenomenon of massive displacements common in other parts of the world.
Review of a Decade of Displacement
In order to assess the impact of the displaced and to recommend responses, we must first look at what has taken place in a decade of peoples being displaced within their countries and abroad. Observers and students of the phenomenon have estimated that between 1.8 million and 2.8 million have left their place of residence in recent years. Of these, about million are displaced in four countries (El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras); the rest are dispersed throughout at least II countries, UNHCR estimates that there are some 300,000 residing outside their own country (not including those in the United States), but it has recognized and protected only 116,000.
Those Displaced Within Their Own Countries
Those considered to be displaced within their own countries are people who have changed their place of residence within their own borders for reasons connected with the conflict. The country most affected is El Salvador, followed by Nicaragua and Guatemala. A special case worthy of mention is Honduras. Although the conflict within Honduras is minor, 35,000 people are displaced by the Nicaraguan counterrevolution; for many years the Honduran government has denied the existence of these contras in Honduras.
The primary factors causing displacement are the violence of certain military campaigns that do not discriminate between combatant and civilian populations, and the economic devastation caused by the conflicts. In fact, a direct correlation exists between the number of people displaced and the intensity of the counterinsurgency campaigns (in Guatemala, 1982 estimates reached 1 million, while now they are at 250,000).
Another cause of displacement is that some people or groups foresee the possibility (actual or potential) of being affected by the confrontation. A third factor is forced relocation for...
