The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck. Dieser Artikel ist nicht verfügbar.The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

The Art of UncertaintyIn lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what’s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order.Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don’t, or simply cannot, know.

David Spiegelhalter is emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the author of the best-selling book The Art of Statistics. Knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics, he lives in Cambridge, UK.