The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

David Spiegelhalter

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Sprache: Englisch

Verlag: WW Norton & Co, 2026

1324130725 / 9781324130727

Serie: Buch 30 von 33 - Pelican Books

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How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as ?highly likely??how likely is that, really? Whether we?re trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential?yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don?t know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what?s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order. Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don?t, or simply cannot, know.…

Bestandsnummer des Verkäufers 00108106965

Titel
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Autor
David Spiegelhalter
Verlag
WW Norton & Co
Erscheinungsjahr
2026
Zustand
Good
Einband
Paperback
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN-10
1324130725
ISBN-13
9781324130727
Serie
Buch 30 von 33: Pelican Books

World of Books (was SecondSale)

Montgomery, IL, USA

Verkäufer/-in mit 5 Sternen

Verkäufer:in bei ZVAB seit 20. Dezember 2007

Versandkosten innerhalb von USA

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