Prediction, Projection and Forecasting: Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Economics, Finance, Politics, Games and Sports - Softcover

Saaty, Thomas L.; Vargas, Luis G.

 
9789401579544: Prediction, Projection and Forecasting: Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Economics, Finance, Politics, Games and Sports
Softcover
ISBN 10: 9401579547 ISBN 13: 9789401579544
Verlag: Springer, 2012

Inhaltsangabe

We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.

Die Inhaltsangabe kann sich auf eine andere Ausgabe dieses Titels beziehen.

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Thomas L. Saaty (1926 - 2017) was a Distinguished University Professor at the University of Pittsburgh (USA), where he taught in the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business. Prior to coming to the University of Pittsburgh, Saaty was a professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (USA) for 10 years. Before that he was working at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency at the U.S. State Department. He was the architect of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to complex decisions with dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP).

Luis G. Vargas is a Professor of Business Analytics and Operations at the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business of the University of Pittsburgh (USA). His research focuses on decision theory, practical applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), artificial intelligence in manufacturing, the use of artificial intelligence techniques for scheduling, measurement of resource utilization, group decision making, Bayesian networks, and forecasting.
H. J. Zoffer served as dean of the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business of the University of Pittsburgh (USA) from 1968 to 1996, following a career in teaching and university administration. He is the author of a number of articles and books on such subjects as individual and group decision-making under risk, the social responsibility of business, continuing education for managers, business ethics, corporate risk analysis, accounting education, and improving institutional credibility.
Amos Guiora is Professor of Law at the S.J. Quinney College of Law, University of Utah. He teaches Criminal Procedure, International Law, Global Perspectives on Counterterrorism and Religion and Terrorism, incorporating innovative scenario-based instruction to address national and international security issues and dilemmas. He has publishedextensively on issues related to national security, limits of interrogation, religion and terrorism, the limits of power, multiculturalism and human rights. His latest book: The Crime of Complicity: The Bystander in the Holocaust, directly contributed to legislation ratified by the Utah Legislature in 2021 that criminalizes bystanders who do not intervene on behalf of children and vulnerable adults. The legislation, introduced by Rep. Brian King and sponsored by Sen. Kurt Bramble, enjoyed overwhelming bipartisan support.

„Über diesen Titel“ kann sich auf eine andere Ausgabe dieses Titels beziehen.

Verlag
Springer
Erscheinungsdatum
2012
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
9401579547
ISBN 13 
9789401579544
Einband
Taschenbuch
Anzahl der Seiten
276
Kontakt zum Hersteller
ProductSafety@springernature.com
ProductSafety@springernature.com

Poststr. 9
Darmstadt
64293
Deutschland

Weitere beliebte Ausgaben desselben Titels

9780792391043: Prediction, Projection and Forecasting: Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Economics, Finance, Politics, Games and Sports

Vorgestellte Ausgabe

ISBN 10:  0792391047 ISBN 13:  9780792391043
Verlag: Springer, 1990
Hardcover