Modeling cancer parameters using Globocan Egypt 2020 estimates: Book Series on Modeling Cancer Incidence-Mortality and Cum.Risk. Insights for Predicting Future Trends in Public Health - Softcover

Inhaltsangabe

Cancer remains a major public health burden in Egypt, requiring quantitative analyzes to support prevention and control strategies. Using Globocan 2020 estimates, this study models cancer incidence, mortality, and cumulative risk in the Egypt population. In 2020, an estimated 134,632 new cases and 89,042 deaths occurred. The most frequent cancers were Liver, Breast, Bladder, Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and, Lung showing the highest lethality (Nd/Nc ≈ 97.5%) for Oesophagus cancer followed by (95.1%) for Lung cancer. The global mortality ratio (slope ≈ 0.72) suggests that about three-quarters of new cases result in death. Linear and power-law correlations (Eqs. 1–7) describe the causal link between incidence and mortality, while the parameters (α = 1.084, k = 0.28970, γi> 1) express behavioral and severity indices. Gender disparities are evident, with Liver, Bladder and Lung cancers dominating in males, and Liver, Breast and Bladder in females. The modeling framework offers predictive insight for evaluating cancer dynamics and improving early detection and public health interventions in Egypt.

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