Science and technology foresight: Organisational, methodological and application issues - Softcover

Inhaltsangabe

The first chapter of this book discusses the general characteristics of scientific and technological foresight for military purposes. This is preceded by a clarification of the concepts of "scientific foresight" and "prediction" to clarify the difference between them. This is due to the fact that these concepts are often confused in the scientific literature. This chapter analyses the components of foresight: methodology; information basis of foresight; organisational structure of foresight. The second chapter of the study offers the methodology developed by the author for determining the effectiveness of scientific and technological forecasting on the basis of introduction and use of inegral characteristics for obtaining a generalized criterion of information effectiveness of forecasting. The methodology deals only with assessment of information effectiveness of forecasting, assuming that information effectiveness of forecasting can be determined by the value of forecasting information about future state and properties of an object of any nature for making a right decision at present.

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