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Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403) - Softcover

Brennscheidt, Gunnar

 
9783540573111: Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403)
Softcover
ISBN 10: 3540573119 ISBN 13: 9783540573111
Verlag: Springer - Verlag, 1993

Inhaltsangabe

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

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This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

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Verlag
Springer - Verlag
Erscheinungsdatum
1993
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
3540573119
ISBN 13 
9783540573111
Einband
Taschenbuch
Anzahl der Seiten
233
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