Sequential Binary Investment Decisions: A Bayesian Approach: 313 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 313) - Softcover

Jammernegg, Werner

 
9783540500346: Sequential Binary Investment Decisions: A Bayesian Approach: 313 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 313)
Softcover
ISBN 10: 3540500340 ISBN 13: 9783540500346
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1988

Inhaltsangabe

This book describes some models from the theory of investment which are mainly characterized by three features. Firstly, the decision-maker acts in a dynamic environment. Secondly, the distributions of the random variables are only incompletely known at the beginning of the planning process. This is termed as decision-making under conditions of uncer­ tainty. Thirdly, in large parts of the work we restrict the analysis to binary decision models. In a binary model, the decision-maker must choose one of two actions. For example, one decision means to undertake the invest­ ·ment project in a planning period, whereas the other decision prescribes to postpone the project for at least one more period. The analysis of dynamic decision models under conditions of uncertainty is not a very common approach in economics. In this framework the op­ timal decisions are only obtained by the extensive use of methods from operations research and from statistics. It is the intention to narrow some of the existing gaps in the fields of investment and portfolio analysis in this respect. This is done by combining techniques that have been devel­ oped in investment theory and portfolio selection, in stochastic dynamic programming, and in Bayesian statistics. The latter field indicates the use of Bayes’ theorem for the revision of the probability distributions of the random variables over time.

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Reseña del editor

This book describes some models from the theory of investment which are mainly characterized by three features. Firstly, the decision-maker acts in a dynamic environment. Secondly, the distributions of the random variables are only incompletely known at the beginning of the planning process. This is termed as decision-making under conditions of uncer­ tainty. Thirdly, in large parts of the work we restrict the analysis to binary decision models. In a binary model, the decision-maker must choose one of two actions. For example, one decision means to undertake the invest­ ·ment project in a planning period, whereas the other decision prescribes to postpone the project for at least one more period. The analysis of dynamic decision models under conditions of uncertainty is not a very common approach in economics. In this framework the op­ timal decisions are only obtained by the extensive use of methods from operations research and from statistics. It is the intention to narrow some of the existing gaps in the fields of investment and portfolio analysis in this respect. This is done by combining techniques that have been devel­ oped in investment theory and portfolio selection, in stochastic dynamic programming, and in Bayesian statistics. The latter field indicates the use of Bayes' theorem for the revision of the probability distributions of the random variables over time.

Reseña del editor

This book deals with analysis of sequential decision models in investment and portfolio theory. The optimal investment strategy is derived by using results from stochastic dynamic programming and from Bayesian statistics. The analysis is largely restricted to models with only two alternatives in order that powerful results may be obtained. In the first part a dynamic portfolio model consisting of two assets is considered. In the second part a stopping decision model is used to determine the optimal investment date of a long-lived real project. Results from discrete-time dynamic programming and from Bayesian statistics are used to derive structural properties of the optimal investment strategy, such as monotonicity results. Thereby the optimal investment strategy allows plausible economic interpretations and leads to many interesting sensitivity results.

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Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erscheinungsdatum
1988
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
3540500340
ISBN 13 
9783540500346
Einband
Tapa blanda
Anzahl der Seiten
168
Kontakt zum Hersteller
Nicht verfügbar
Verantwortliche Person
CMN Printpool Inh. Mathis Neumann
https://www.also.com/ec/cms5/en_6000/6000/index.jsp

Friedrich-Karl-Str. 9
Hamburg
Deutschland

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