INTRODUCTION

We are now in the middle of a long process of transition in the nature of the image which man has of himself and his environment [...]. There was almost always somewhere beyond the known limits of human habitation [...] a frontier. That is, there was always someplace else to go when things got too difficult [...] The image of the frontier is probably one of the oldest images of mankind, and it is not surprising that we find it hard to get rid of. Gradually, however, man has been accustoming himself to the notion of the spherical earth and a closed sphere of human activity.

K. E. Boulding, The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth (1966)

Fifty years ago, Kenneth Boulding argued in his predictive essay on the economics of the coming Spaceship Earth that the world would eventually have to move to a more responsible mode of economic interaction with our planet – from a Cowboy economy (reckless, wasteful) to a self-contained 'Spaceship economy' (regenerative, contained). Now we are at last catching up with Boulding's vision, as the prospect of an economy centred on accessing renewable energy resources from the sun and the wind, and tapping regenerated resources from a circular flow, becomes a realistic option. We are living through a profound industrial transformation, a 'green shift' that is being driven by global demographic, economic and technological forces.

We do indeed live in a period of profound change, particularly in terms of energy and resources utilized. The upheavals in the patterns of energy production and consumption – with dramatic swings away from established systems of fossil fuel usage and linear resource throughput – are occurring so fast that it is difficult to keep up with them. Innovations like the Tesla electric vehicles now transforming the global automobile industry, new sources of electric power, new smart grids and new ways of producing food in urban settings (e.g., vertical farms) all appear so dramatic partly because they are, well, dramatic. But they also invite contrast with decades of stasis in the energy, electrical and transport worlds, that have long been held in a 'frozen' state by patterns of corporate power established earlier. Now it is all being shaken up. There is a green ferment in the air.

The difference in this case is that it is a ferment that is touching not just a handful of countries or a small fraction of the world's population, but it is instead mobilizing the great populous countries of China and India in a world-historic transformation. These two countries (more civilizations than nations) are now reclaiming their traditional place as leaders of the world economy in a profound transformation that may be characterized as the Great Convergence. This term itself is carefully chosen to depict a contrast with the Great Divergence that separated Europe, North America and then Japan – the (not strictly geographical) 'West' – from 'the Rest'.

The relevance to the story of 'greening' is immediate and profound. China started on its quest to join the advanced world three decades ago, with its famed 'opening up' that ushered in sustained economic growth fluctuating around ten per cent per year. This process has now brought Chinese firms to quasi-parity with advanced firms, and in the process lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. India is following the same astonishing pathway with perhaps a lag of a decade or so. As with all previous industrial powers before them, China and India have been following the Western route of utilizing fossil fuels – above all, coal – as their primary source of power, as well as extensive supplies of resources as material inputs. But as they do so, they come across the inconvenient truth that this Western fossil-fuelled model will not scale to global dimensions. There is the issue of carbon emissions and global warming, of course. But the real barrier that China and India face is not so much climate change (a problem that they feel, rightly, they inherited from the West) as immediate pollution from the burning of fossil fuels with their particulate emissions, and the geopolitical entanglements that result from global sourcing of such fuels and resources. This globalization of resource extraction impinges on established patterns of trade and production and sparks trade wars, if not civil wars, revolutions and terrorism. These are the real 'limits to growth' faced by China and India.

The resolution of the problem can be found not in terms of manipulating global political and trade-based economic relations, nor in simplistic calls for a shift to 'zero growth' even before China, India and the other industrializingcountries have enjoyed their time in the sun. Rather, the resolution is to be found in a new pattern of economic growth that is coming to be termed 'green growth', where growth is complemented by changes in energy and resource flows that are more sustainable. Countries embark on a revolution in their energy system, displacing the established fossil fuel supplies and centralized electric power systems, and reduce their resource vulnerability by shifting from linear patterns of resource throughput to circular resource flows. The unanticipated aspect of this global green shift is that it is actually being led by China and (to some extent) by India. These are the countries where the problems are felt acutely and where the solutions present themselves most forcefully.

As the green shift involves new energy and resource and food production technologies, and new companies to drive their adoption, we see Chinese and Indian players emerging in newfound positions of leadership. These players are utilizing strategies of convergence (catch-up) that were perfected by East Asian countries like Korea and Taiwan in their catch-up with the West – initially, in a surge of fossil-fuelled industrialization. We also see Western companies striking out in new entrepreneurial ventures that break with the deadening hand of...