THE NEW 'NEW POLITICS'

Let us start with three vignettes from three key political events on three continents: the French presidential elections of 2007, the 2007 Australian federal elections, and the American presidential elections of 2008.

The May 2007 presidential elections in France broke a number of new grounds. First, both major contenders were selected – intentionally and openly – on the grounds of their popularity and mass appeal. Nicolas Sarkozy, a son of Hungarian migrants, was selected by the Gaullists for his personal appeal and his combative populist style. He was initially adored (together with his ex-model celebrity partner Carla Bruni) by the mass media. Ségolène Royal, the Socialist contender, was described as 'the sexiest political candidate' and 'conviction politician' with strong popular support, especially among women. The electoral campaign was dominated by TV debates accompanied by websites and blogs, talkbacks and ubiquitous 'hand shaking and baby kissing'. As never before, these public appearances shaped candidates' images as popular leaders. The prolonged 'American- style' personality-focused campaign attracted a record number of voters (84 per cent turnout), with Nicolas Sarkozy winning 53 per cent of votes in the second round. Sarkozy's success was widely attributed to four factors: the strength of his personality, skillfully projected through the media; the celebrity style of presentation enhanced by his flamboyant manners and glamorous wife; his capacity to transcend ideological and party divisions, combined with an emphasis on 'a new start'; and his image as a 'strong leader', 'man of action' and self-made politician who came from outside the political establishment. Sarkozy extolled the virtues of commitment, equality of opportunity and national solidarity. He overshadowed Ségolène Royal mainly by force of personality, by transcending the ideological and partisan agenda and stressing pragmatic egalitarianism. Following the election, Sarkozy enjoyed a nearly yearlong honeymoon of high popularity. But his shine started to fade in 2008. Three years on, he has lost most of the initial public support and trails in public opinion polls well behind the new opposition candidate.

In November 2007, Australian voters elected a new federal political leader – Kevin Rudd – after an 18-month-long 'marathon campaign' that focused almost entirely on the characters of the leadership contenders. His rival was a long-term incumbent and leader of the conservative Coalition, John Howard. Rudd promised a change not so much in policy directions as in leadership style. The campaign was conducted under the slogan of 'good leadership' (incumbent Howard) versus 'new leadership' (challenger Rudd), experience versus innovation, tough stance versus pragmatic flexibility. Rudd emerged as a winner by projecting an image of himself as an innovative, energetic and forceful – but also inclusive and pragmatic – technocrat. He promised to reform the Australian economy and society, promote reconciliation with indigenous Australians, and – thanks to his widely publicised expertise in Mandarin –develop Australia's regional links. John Howard was beaten badly, losing not only the majority in Parliament, but also his seat. His refusal to make space for his loyal successor (Peter Costello) made him look arrogant, and his support for the unpopular policies of American president George W. Bush was seen as out of step with the public. By contrast, Kevin Rudd enjoyed a honeymoon of popularity unparalleled in its strength, and he wrestled from his party the right to appoint all cabinet ministers. But his popularity faded rapidly and dramatically after some policy blunders and, a few months before the 2010 poll, the panic-stricken Labor Party engineered a leadership replacement by his deputy, Julia Gillard. From the very start, Gillard became the object of intense and almost exclusive media attention. She won the 2010 election by the narrowest possible margin and was forced into a coalition with independents and Greens. Her 'weak leadership' was widely criticised, and her policy initiatives were greeted with cynicism by the opposition. Gillard's approval rating subsequently declined to record lows.

The 2008 presidential campaign in the United States focused almost exclusively on the leadership contenders, Barack Obama and John McCain, and their relation to the 'Bush legacy'. After a record 22-month campaign focusing on the personalities of the main contenders, which cost a record $1.5 billion and secured near-record levels of voter turnout, Barack Obama emerged as the winner. In the final stage of the long and exhausting campaign, conducted under the shadow of the financial crisis (interpreted widely as a 'Bush legacy'), the contest moved to the digital domain, where personalised Facebook and Twitter appeals gave Obama a winning edge. In the final round, the American voters faced a choice of youthful vigour or maturity, intelligence or experience, stirring oratory or crafty argumentation, hope or fear. The image of a youthful committed reformer, a stirring orator, the first African American at the apex of political power appeared more powerful than the image of a 'safe-n-sure', 'tried but tired' heroic fighter. According to commentators, McCain's defeat resulted from his close ties to the 'Washington establishment', his age and health and, most importantly, his inability to inspire public trust. He was seen as tainted by the mistakes of the previous administration and unable to sever his links with Bush. Obama's victory was described as a triumph of a determined and charismatic leader. It generated an unprecedented sense of hope and very high, often unrealistic expectations of instantaneous change ('Yes, we can'). His political honeymoon lasted longer than the initial popularity of Sarkozy and Rudd. But three years into his first term, Obama's star has faded. A weak economy (high unemployment) and aggressive critique by the Republican opposition keep his approval ratings low. He has been accused of weakness in providing political leadership, confronting his opponents and promoting promised reforms.

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These three vignettes illustrate the central theme of this book: a new and unexpected turn of 'new politics' in advanced democracies towards 'leader democracy', a type of politic, democratic regime and an elite configuration in which political leaders play a central role in providing a 'democratic linkage' between the rulers and citizenry. Leaders establish this 'linkage' by winning electoral contests in which they project a strong leadership image and prove successful in attracting mass confidence and votes. Contemporary democratic leaders win such electoral contests by appealing for support mainly through the mass media. They not only stand at the centre of public attention as personifications of democratic popular will, but also actively shape this will, mould the popular preferences, define national...