Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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9781608710188: Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Book by Richards J Heuer Jr Randolph H Pherson

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Vom Verlag:

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES

• Getting Started Checklist

• Customer Checklist

• Issue Redefinition

• Chronologies and Timelines

• Sorting

• Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

• Matrices

• Network Analysis

• Mind Maps and Concept Maps

• Process Maps and Gantt Charts

• Structured Brainstorming

• Virtual Brainstorming

• Nominal Group Technique

• Starbursting

• Cross-Impact Matrix

• Morphological Analysis

• Quadrant Crunching

• Basic Scenario Analysis

• Alternative Futures Analysis

• Multiple Scenario Generation

• Indicators

• Indicators Validator

• Simple Hypothesis

• Multiple Hypotheses Generator

• Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

• Diagnostic Reasoning

• Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

• Argument Mapping

• Deception Detection

• Key Assumptions Check

• Structured Analogies

• Role Playing

• Red Hat Analysis

• Outside-In Thinking

• Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

• Prediction Markets

• Premortem Analysis

• Structured Self-Critique

• What If? Analysis

• High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

• Devil's Advocacy

• Red Team Analysis

• Delphi Method

• Adversarial Collaboration

• Structured Debate

• Complexity Manager

• Decision Matrix

• Force Field Analysis

• Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

• SWOT Analysis

Über den Autor:

Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. Long retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer has nevertheless been associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades and has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. He has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California, and has pursued other graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.

Randolph H. Pherson, Chief Executive Officer of Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governments develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations. He has authored seven books on structured analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresight analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated with Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at the London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and the Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for a suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite®. 

Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recently serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College and his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

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