Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Christopher Burns (Ipswich, MA) has been a news executive and an independent consultant to government and the private sector for thirty years, advising clients on emerging information management technologies and the evolution of the information economy. His previous positions include vice president of the Washington Post Company; senior vice president of the Minneapolis Star and Tribune; executive editor of UPI; and president of Christopher Burns, Inc.

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DEADLY DECISIONS

Prometheus Books

Contents

INTRODUCTION.................................................111. FALSE KNOWLEDGE...........................................17Titanic: Unsinkable..........................................17Medicine, Money, and War: Unthinkable........................232. VIRTUAL TRUTH.............................................31Three Mile Island: The Opposite Is True......................32Ignore, Deny, Forget.........................................40Shuttle Challenger: No One Is to Blame.......................44A Conspiracy of Silence......................................543. MEMBERS OF THE MIND.......................................59The Truthful Brain...........................................61Some Things Must Be Believed to Be Seen......................69USS Vincennes: The System Worked Fine........................76Faster Than the Speed of Thought.............................854. CHALLENGING TRUTH.........................................93Betsy Lehman: Truth to Power.................................94The Truthful Team............................................99Inspiration, Reason, and Consensus...........................102Les Philosophes..............................................1095. THE INFORMATION WAR.......................................119The Stag Hunt................................................122Blinking Red.................................................132Facts, Values, and Concepts..................................1389/11: Reality Hits Home......................................140What Went Wrong?.............................................1556. DEADLY DECISIONS..........................................161The Information Bubble.......................................162Katrina: Warners and Warnees.................................165Uncertainty Absorption.......................................172Mrs. Aristotle's Teeth.......................................178Six Tests for Truth..........................................183The Truth/Action Paradox.....................................1887. THE COMING EPIDEMIC.......................................191Avian Flu: The Facts.........................................192Believing WHO?...............................................202Considering Disaster.........................................2068. WALTZING INTO WAR.........................................213Faking the News..............................................213Manufacturing Truth..........................................225There Is Less to This Than Meets the Eye.....................232Invading Iraq: The Smoking Gun...............................245Mission Accomplished.........................................2599. TRUTH SYSTEMS.............................................267The Truthful Organization....................................269Truth Systems Crumble........................................275Can Democracy Survive?.......................................281The Machinery of Knowledge...................................285So?..........................................................292The Future Isn't What It Used to Be..........................297ENDNOTES.....................................................301SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................337INDEX........................................................347

Chapter One

It was nearly midnight on April 14, 1912, when the White Star liner Titanic, racing along on its maiden voyage across the North Atlantic, struck an iceberg many times larger than the ship itself. We now know from extraordinary new photographs that the seam along the starboard hull was ripped open by the impact. The ocean poured in, breaching the double hull, flooding the mail room, the squash court, and the third-class berths. It spilled over the "watertight" bulkheads to snuff out the giant steam boilers and pull the ship down in one of the greatest disasters of modern times.

In the wake of this tragedy, the British government ordered that ice patrols commence along the major shipping lanes to guard against another disaster. They should have called for truth patrols instead.

TITANIC: UNSINKABLE

There was nothing surprising about icebergs in the North Atlantic. All day the Titanic had received detailed information about the ice ahead, delivered directly to Captain Edward Smith and to other officers on the bridge. Two hours before the incident, the Mesaba sent the Titanic a warning of icebergs at 42 25'N 50 14'W, almost precisely where the accident later occurred. At least one report was given to Bruce Ismay, president of the White Star Line. Eager to set a new record for transatlantic crossing, Ismay calmly stuffed the note in his pocket. In spite of frequent and specific warnings, he made the decision to let the ship race ahead at full speed.

Ismay believed three things to be true: first, he knew from his own experience with other ships that the lookout would give him actual sightings of any iceberg in time to steer around it. Second, his team of engineers assured him that even if the Titanic struck an iceberg submerged or otherwise difficult to see, the ship would not sink. And third, if there should be an accident of any kind, there was a tight and mutually supportive community of ships nearby that would come to his aid. A truth patrol would have noted that he was wrong on all counts.

The night was not dark and stormy, but clear, cloudless, and spangled with stars; conditions for timely warning seemed excellent. But the lookout actually assigned to watch for ice couldn't see that well. Frederick Fleet had not been given an eye exam in five years and, in spite of his frequent requests, had not been provided binoculars. More important, the unprecedented size and speed of the Titanic were so great that, unlike other ships in Ismay's experience, this one could not be stopped or significantly turned in less than a mile with engines full astern. Even a lookout with excellent vision could not have spotted the iceberg at that distance.

Nor was it unsinkable. The Titanic was built to remain afloat even with its first four watertight compartments flooded, but the new design had not been tested. Ismay even overruled the worried engineers who built the ship, cutting the number of lifeboats from thirty-two to sixteen, the minimum required by the British Board of Trade. He later observed that the reason the Titanic carried any lifeboats at all was so they could rescue passengers and crew from other ships.

And finally, the Titanic was for all practical purposes alone. Ten miles away, the Leyland liner Californian had slowed down in the dangerous ice field when third officer Charles Victor Groves saw the lights from a large passenger liner racing up from the east. As he watched, the liner seemed to stop as if in trouble. He went to the radio room, found that the operator had gone to bed, and tried to operate the radio himself but was unable to make contact.

For the next two hours, Groves and his fellow officers studied the strange behavior of the Titanic. She seemed to float awkwardly on the sea, firing white rockets normally considered a signal of distress. When they reported this to Stanley Lord, captain of the Californian, he told them to try to make...