Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Thomas Kida is a professor in the Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and the author of many articles on decision-making.

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Don't Believe Everything You Think

Prometheus Books

Contents

Acknowledgments...................................................9Introduction: A Six Pack of Problems..............................111 Weird Beliefs and Pseudoscientific Thinking.....................252 A Gremlin on My Shoulder........................................453 Thinking Like a Scientist.......................................674 The Role of Chance and Coincidence..............................855 Seeing Things That Aren't There.................................1016 Seeing Associations That Aren't There...........................1197 Predicting the Unpredictable....................................1338 Seeking to Confirm..............................................1559 How We Simplify.................................................16710 Framing and Other Decision Snags...............................18311 Faulty Memories................................................20112 The Influence of Others........................................215Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts.....................................233Notes.............................................................239Index.............................................................279

Chapter One

It is not disbelief that is dangerous to our society, it is belief. -George Bernard Shaw

On a popular local radio station, three morning show personalities were talking with a frequent guest. "Unbelievable!" "Amazing!" That's how they described their guest's incredible ability. In fact, they urged their audience to get to one of her seminars as soon as possible. Why? Because she can talk with the dead. Now these talk-show hosts are critical of many things; they often try to uncover the folly in what other people say or do. However, they were completely taken with the psychic. So were their listeners. Caller after caller was amazed by what she said-some even cried upon hearing what they thought were the words of their deceased loved ones.

You're at the hospital with severe abdominal pain. While lying on the examination table, a nurse enters the room, places her hands several inches above your body, and begins moving them in a gentle, wavelike motion, starting at your head and progressing slowly down your torso. "What are you doing?" you ask. "I'm driving the negative energy from your body," she says. "It's what's causing your pain." Sound a bit crazy? That wouldn't happen, would it? Well, it could. The nurse is practicing a technique called therapeutic touch. More than forty thousand nurses have been trained in this technique, and more than twenty thousand actively practice it today. In fact, it's taught at more than one hundred colleges and universities worldwide, including major medical schools at respected universities like NYU, and it's used in at least eighty hospitals in the United States alone.

My good friend Joe is a geologist. He runs a water exploration company and travels the world finding drinkable water for towns, cities, and even small countries. He uses the most advanced technology, from complex computer models to satellite imagery, to locate high-output wells. Joe is very successful at what he does. In some areas of the Caribbean he has achieved an almost godlike status for his ability to find water where no one else could. Joe is one of the most intelligent individuals I know. And yet, at one point in his career, he used dowsing in his water exploration. Dowsing is a technique in which an individual holds an object, like a Y-shaped tree branch, and walks around the land in search of water. When the branch twitches, it's taken as a sign that water is below. Joe met a "professional" dowser while working in New England and became convinced that it works. In fact, many years ago when I bought some land to build a house he came over, dowsed the land, and told me where to drill.

What do these cases have in common? Very bright, capable, highly trained people are holding extraordinary beliefs that have little or no credible supporting evidence. In fact, the evidence indicates the reverse-talking with the dead, therapeutic touch, and dowsing don't work (my well has never yielded much water), but smart people continue to believe. It happens to medical professionals, successful businesspeople, scientists, and to you and me. Now you may say, "I wouldn't believe in such bizarre things." But what about other beliefs that may, on the surface, seem more plausible? Consider the case of "facilitated communication."

SOUNDS REASONABLE, DON'T YOU THINK?

Your friend has an autistic child. Autism is a medical condition in which children can be unresponsive, aloof, and seem incapable of forming relationships with others. One's heart goes out to the children and parents affected by such a debilitating condition. Then there appears to be something that can help. Your friend recently told you of a fantastic new discovery that has enabled him to talk with his child. He says the technique, called facilitated communication, has demonstrated that autistic children are quite intelligent, and that their main problem centers simply around their inability to communicate. Delighted for your friend and intrigued by this breakthrough, you decide to learn more about the technique.

You find that facilitated communication has been used since the 1970s, when a teacher discovered that if you provide physical assistance to a severely autistic child, by holding their hand or arm to a typewriter or computer keyboard, the child will type out coherent, intelligent thoughts. Apparently, hidden beneath the impaired exterior of an autistic child lay a very capable mind that would demonstrate considerable intellect if put in a situation enabling him to communicate. In effect, facilitated communication demonstrated that severely autistic children have communication problems that are primarily caused by physical, rather than mental, limitations.

Based on this amazing discovery, the Dignity Through Education and Language Center was opened in 1986 to promote facilitated communication, and since then other centers have been established at major American universities. At Syracuse University, the Facilitated Communication Institute was established, which has trained thousands of therapists, and programs have been developed at other schools.

As time went by, the usefulness of facilitated communication gained support. Numerous reports were published indicating that facilitated communication was effective even for people with severe autism. Thousands of children throughout the world have been communicating with their parents and others using the technique. In fact, autistic children have been attending regular schools and progressing quite well with the help of facilitated communication.

The evidence seems compelling, doesn't it? Research centers are set up at major universities. Numerous personal testimonials indicate that parents can now communicate with their children. Severely autistic children are succeeding in school. And, there's "research" to support it. Pretty convincing stuff. Or is it?

It turns out that when controlled scientific studies were conducted, facilitated communication was shown to be worthless. In one very dramatic example, a researcher put headphones on both the facilitator and the child and asked...