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Inhaltsangabe
Lucid and compelling, this is an essential guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. The authors begin with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" freemarket economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the world's richest territories. Based on their own expertise in policy choices and a collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors applied a scientific model of decision making to Hong Kong's unknown future.
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Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Julius Silver Professor of Politics and Director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is an expert on international conflict, foreign policy formation, the peace process, and nation-building. He is the author of many books, including The Logic of Political Survival (with Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow); War and Reason (with David Lalman); Predicting Politics; The Strategy of Campaigning (with Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, and Condoleezza Rice); and The War Trap. He is the Managing Partner of Mesquita & Roundell, LLC, a consultancy. In 2007 he won the DMZ Peace Prize for contributing to the advancement of peace on the Korean peninsula. He received the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Conflict Processes Section of the American Political Science Association and the Distinguished Scholar Award from the Foreign Policy section of the International Studies Association in 2008. He is a former Guggenheim Fellow, recipient of the Karl Deutsch Award, and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Council on Foreign Relations.
Von der hinteren Coverseite
On 1 July 1997 the red flag with five yellow stars of the People's Republic of China will be hoisted over Government House in Hong Kong, replacing the Union Jack and symbolizing the culmination of a profound political transition. The United Kingdom, which has governed the colony since 1841, will have transferred sovereignty and administrative responsibility over Hong Kong to mainland China's Communist party. Hong Kong is in for a rocky road in the years ahead. Future treatment of Hong Kong will be caught up in the political competition for control of China. Victims of that competition will include the free press, academic freedom, open and fair elections, and some portion of market freedom. Hong Kong will not be as tightly controlled as the rest of China, but neither will it be the free and vivacious place it has been for the past half century. The political and economic landscape will be filled with uncertainty, cronyism, lost freedoms, and more corruption than has been known in the recent past. It is a bleak picture indeed. Such is the dire prophecy of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, whose Red Flag over Hong Kong casts a cold eye on the future prospects of "the world's best example of the free-market economy, working as textbooks say it should". Applying to that unknown future a dynamic model of decision making that rests on the collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors boldly seek to quantify human behavior and so derive a precise and reliable early forecast of Hong Kong's destiny at the hands of its communist masters.
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Red Flag Over Hong Kong (Comparative Politics & the International Political Economy,)
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Red Flag Over Hong Kong
Verlag:
Chatham House Pub., 1996
ISBN 10: 1566430402
ISBN 13: 9781566430401
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