Verwandte Artikel zu Resolving Insurgencies
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Inhaltsangabe
The study of counterinsuregency (COIN) has focused disproportionately on its operational and tactical aspects at the expense of larger strategic considerations. Foremost among these neglected considerations is the vexing problem of how insurgencies actually end. Most studies presume that insurgencies, like conventional wars, conclude with a clear-cut victory by one side or the other. Preoccupation with the anti-colonial insurgencies following World War II has reinforced this thinking. However, consideration of a broader selection of conflicts reveals that most did not end in such a clear, decisive manner. This monograph examines 12 insurgencies clustered in four groups based upon how they ended: conflicts in which the insurgents won; conflicts in which the government won; insurgencies that degenerated into mere terrorism or criminality; and insurgencies resolved by co-opting the insurgents into legitimate politics through a negotiated settlement and reintegrating them into normal social life. The author argues that Group 4 insurgencies provide the best examples from which to derive lessons relevant to the United States acting in support of a state threatened with insurgency. From these lessons, a political strategy of co-option can be developed—a strategy combing diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement assets in a unified effort. However, such a strategy can only work when there is sufficient political will to sustain the protracted effort necessary for it to succeed. The monograph concludes with consideration of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Based on conclusions derived from the 12 case studies, it argues that the United States has devised the correct strategy for resolving the Iraq War, and that sufficient political will exists to see the conflict through to a successful conclusion. The prognosis for Afghanistan is far less optimistic. The United States adopted the correct strategy for that war only in 2009, long after the conflict had become a chronic insurgency in which the Taliban fund their operations through the opium trade and exercise shadow governance over much of the country. The conflict has also spread to Pakistan, which has proven to be a most reluctant ally. Under these circumstances, the chances of a clear-cut victory are remote. Even achieving a compromise peace through co-option will be difficult. The United States must consider that it might have to withdraw without a satisfactory resolution to the insurgency. In that case, it will need to engage whoever governs Afghanistan to hold them accountable for terrorism launched from Afghan territory.
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About the Author
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
THOMAS R. MOCKAITIS is Professor of History at DePaul University. He team-teaches terrorism and counterterrorism courses internationally with other experts through the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Post-Graduate School. He was the 2004 Eisenhower Chair at the Royal Military Academy of the Netherlands. He has also lectured at the NATO School, the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and the Canadian Forces Staff College, and presented papers at the Pearson Peacekeeping Center (Canada), the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (UK), and the Austrian National Defense Academy. A frequent media commentator on terrorism and security matters, Dr. Mockaitis has provided commentary on Public Television, National Public Radio, BBC World News, all major Chicago TV stations, and various local radio programs. He appears regularly as a terrorism expert for WGN-TV News. He is the 2008 recipient of the DePaul Liberal Arts and Sciences Cortelyou-Lowery Award for Excellence in Teaching, Scholarship, and Service. Dr. Mockaitis is the author of Iraq and the Challenge of Counterinsurgency (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008), The “New” Terrorism: Myths and Reality (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007), The Iraq War: Learning from the Past, Adapting to the Present, and Preparing for the Future (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2007), Peacekeeping and Intrastate Conflict: the Sword or the Olive Branch? (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999), British Counterinsurgency in the Post-Imperial Era (Manchester, UK: University of Manchester Press, 1995), and British Counterinsurgency: 1919-1960 (London, UK: Macmillan, 1990).
He co-edited Grand Strategy and the War on Terrorism with Paul Rich, (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2003) and The Future of Peace Operations: Old Challenges for a New Century with Erwin Schmidl (a special issue of Small Wars and Insurgencies, London, UK: Taylor and Francis 2004). He is an editor of Small Wars and Insurgencies and has also published numerous articles on unconventional conflict. His most recent book, a biography of Osama bin Laden, was published by Greenwood in early 2010. Dr. Mockaitis earned his B.A. in European history from Allegheny College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in modern British and Irish history from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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