Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Stuart E. Eizenstat has served as U.S. Ambassador to the European Union and Deputy Secretary of both Treasury and State. He is also the author of President Carter: The White House Years (2018), The Future of the Jews: How Global Forces are Impacting the Jewish People, Israel, and Its Relationship with the United States (2012), and Imperfect Justice: Looted Assets, Slave Labor, and the Unfinished Business of World War II (2003). He is an international lawyer in Washington, DC.

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THE FUTURE OF THE JEWS

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC.

Contents

Foreword by Sir Martin Gilbert........................................................................................................ixAcknowledgments.......................................................................................................................xiiiIntroduction..........................................................................................................................11 The Historic Shift of Power from the West to the Emerging Nations of the East and South: A New Multipolar World.....................92 Globalization: A More Integrated World..............................................................................................693 Uncharted Waters: The Struggle for the Direction of Islam...........................................................................1054 Nontraditional Global Security Risks................................................................................................1555 Israel and the New Challenge of Delegitimization....................................................................................2216 The Future of the U.S.-Israeli Relationship.........................................................................................267Final Thoughts........................................................................................................................301Notes.................................................................................................................................319Index.................................................................................................................................345

Chapter One

We are witnessing the geopolitical equivalent of the movement of the earth's tectonic plates. One force shaping the twenty-first-century world is the dramatic shift in power from the developed democracies in North America and Europe to emerging nations in Asia and Latin America; from nations with a historic relationship to the Jewish people and, in the case of the United States, Israel's major ally, to nations with little sensitivity to Jewish history, tiny Jewish communities, and ties with states often at odds with Israel and the United States.

During the Cold War, despite the manifest dangers of the historic competition between the U.S. and its NATO allies and the Soviet Union and its captives, the Eastern Bloc states, there had been a certainty about the world, with most global issues put into that context. The State of Israel unequivocally sided with the democratic West. Though American and Israeli policy makers did not see eye to eye on every issue, Israel at the behest of the U.S. acted as a bulwark against Soviet expansion in the Middle East. During just two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union, the world has changed profoundly.

For a few brief years, there was a shining period when the U.S. was left as the world's sole superpower, and many felt the world would bask in a benign Pax Americana, moving benignly in the direction of democracy, free markets, tolerance, stability, prosperity, and peace. Francis Fukuyama famously declared it "the end of history" in his 1989 essay, in which we were at the "end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government." But this brave new world lasted less than a decade. Instead fierce forces of nationalism, tribalism, and radicalism that had been suppressed during the Cold War were unleashed, pushing the U.S. and the world community, along with Israel and the Jewish people, in new directions that altered fundamental political and economic relationships. Horrific African genocides in Rwanda, Sudan, and Congo; the rise of Islamic terrorism; the brutal Balkan Wars; and the rise of competing global powers all mocked the hope for a more tranquil world. It will take all the historical resilience, creativity, and determination of the U.S., Israel, and the Jewish people to adapt.

While the twentieth century was the Atlantic century dominated by the United States and Europe, the twenty-first century will be the Asian and Pacific century. A new global order is quickly rising, moving the axis of economic, political, and military power from the U.S. and its European allies across the Pacific to China and India. By 2020, Asia will become the world's largest market—almost twice the size of the United States and producing three-fifths of the world's output. This shift is, of course, more complicated than a simple geographic movement, and other non-Asian states, such as Brazil, will play a large role in the birth of the new global order.

The twenty-first century is already witnessing the movement of several emerging powers, only recently struggling developing nations, insisting on taking their place on the world stage, along with the established democratic industrial powers—the U.S. and its Western allies—creating a multipolar, more complex world with many new centers of power, or a "nonpolar world" in the words of Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

In November 2008, a joint assessment by the sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies entitled Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, noted that the shift of economic power from the West to the East was "without precedent in modern history." The report forecast that within fifteen years a global multipolar system will have emerged, made manifest by a "diminished gap between the United States and everybody else.... The unipolar moment is over." The trends are clear: The economic, political, and diplomatic power of the chief supporter of Israel and the Jewish people since 1948, the United States, is being challenged as never before since the U.S. emerged victorious from World War II as the world's dominant superpower.

In the post–Cold War world a variety of actors—emerging states, multinational corporations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), terrorist groups—exercise power for good and ill and in so doing vastly complicate global governance. The new world order risks becoming a new world disorder, unless a strong U.S. continues to act as a ballast to provide coherence and balance to these conflicting forces and multiple power centers. No other country or entity can play that essential role. It is historically unprecedented for so many previously underdeveloped countries to move up the economic ladder so quickly and demand a major role in global governance. In the past, one world power often contended for power with another until a major event transpired, such as the Battle of Trafalgar that confirmed British ascendancy by the decisive defeat in 1805 of the combined Spanish and French fleets. This is not the world of today. Now there are a number of emerging powers, each eager to assert themselves on the world stage, foremost China.

Changing models and new leadership are appearing across every field of endeavor, from high finance to high technology to leisure. Depending on market fluctuations, the world's richest man is a Mexican—Carlos Slim, the son of a Lebanese immigrant, Latin America's largest...