Decision Analysis for Management Judgment - Softcover

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

PAUL GOODWIN is Emeritus Professor at the University of Bath, UK. His research focuses on the role of judgment in forecasting and decision-making. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he has consulted for numerous organizations and served as editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and the “Hot New Research” column in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting for twenty years.

GEORGE WRIGHT is Professor at the University of Strathclyde, UK, and Director of Scenario Associates Ltd. His research examines the role and quality of judgment in anticipating the future. He is editor of both the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and Futures & Foresight Science. He has delivered workshops and consultancy in scenario planning for organizations worldwide.

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APPLYING DECISION ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT ACROSS DIVERSE FIELDS

Sound decision-making is essential for success in today’s complex organizational environments. Now in its sixth edition, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment provides students and professionals with the tools and insights needed to make informed, rational choices in the face of uncertainty.

Written for managers and students without advanced mathematical training, this leading textbook clearly explains a wide range of decision analysis techniques while addressing the psychological biases and pitfalls that often undermine judgment. Throughout the text, authors Paul Goodwin and George Wright combine behavioral insights with practical analytical tools, bridging the gap between foundational theory and real-world practice.

Presenting complex concepts in a clear, accessible style suitable for both students and professionals, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an invaluable resource for anyone tasked with evaluating alternatives, anticipating future scenarios, and balancing multiple objectives in professional contexts. It is ideal for upper-level undergraduate, MBA, and executive education courses in decision analysis, management judgment, strategic planning, and environmental planning.

NEW TO THIS EDITION:

• Introduces the role of artificial intelligence in decision-making, highlighting benefits, limitations, and future potential
• Provides a step-by-step guide to applying the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning
• Demonstrates a streamlined approach for integrating scenario planning with multi-attribute decision analysis
• New practical examples illustrating successful applications of decision analysis and scenario planning
• Includes the latest psychological research on multi-attribute decision-making and behavioral “nudges”
• Incorporates the SPIES method for estimating probability distributions and expands coverage of the Delphi method with recommendations for robust implementation
• Adds Cooke’s Classical Method for aggregating expert probability judgments and discusses the success of superforecasters

WILEY ADVANTAGE:

• Provides a reader-friendly introduction to decision analysis without requiring advanced mathematical knowledge
• Integrates behavioral insights to address psychological biases that can undermine managerial judgment
• Covers a wide range of qualitative and quantitative decision analysis techniques applicable to real-world problems
• Applies concepts to diverse contexts, including business, public administration, and environmental planning
• Encourages active learning through end-of-chapter exercises that reinforce understanding and critical thinking
• Supports flexible teaching approaches with a companion website containing additional exercises, case studies, quizzes, and simulations