Economic and Business Forecasting: Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results (Wiley and SAS Business Series) - Hardcover

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

JOHN E. SILVIA is a Managing Director and the Chief Economist for Wells Fargo Securities. In 2010, he was recognized for the Best Inflation Forecast, the Best Overall Forecast, and the Best Personal Consumption Expenditures Forecast by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

AZHAR IQBAL is an Econometrician and Vice President at Wells Fargo Securities where he provides quantitative analysis to the Economics group as well as modeling and forecasting of macro and financial variables. He has spoken at the American Economic Association, Econometric Society, and other international conferences.

SAM BULLARD is a Managing Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo Securities providing analysis and commentary on financial markets and macroeconomic developments.

SARAH WATT is an Economist with Wells Fargo Securities. She covers the U.S. macro economy, including labor market trends. She also works closely with senior members of her team to produce special reports and regional economic commentary on several U.S. states.

KAYLYN SWANKOSKI is an Economic Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities.

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Due to the Great Recession and the accompanying financial crisis, the premium on effective economic analysis, especially the two aspects of that analysis and accurate forecasting of economic and financial variables, has significantly increased. Economic and Business Forecasting introduces statistical techniques that can help characterize the behavior of economic relationships, testing whether certain series such as output, employment, profits, and interest rates exhibit a steady pace of growth over time, or if that pace has drifted.

Focused on a select set of major economic and financial variables―such as economic growth, final sales, employment, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, financial ratios and the exchange value of the dollar―Economic and Business Forecasting employs econometric techniques and the statistical software SAS™ serves as a template for readers to apply to variables of interest. These variables form the core of an effective decision-making process in both the private and public sectors.

Providing a practical forecasting framework for important everyday applications, this book considers questions including:

• How can we identify economic series that appear to be behaving in typical cyclical fashion compared to those that are not?
• Why have exceptionally low mortgage interest rates not spurred a pickup in housing as in prior recoveries?
• If a time series displays a cyclical component, how does it behave as we move through the business cycle?
• Do turning points in the time series lead or lag those of other series?

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting with the proven guidance found in Economic and Business Forecasting.

Aus dem Klappentext

ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS FORECASTING

ANALYZING AND INTERPRETING ECONOMETRIC RESULTS

Due to the Great Recession and the accompanying financial crisis, the premium on effective economic analysis, especially the two aspects of that analysis and accurate forecasting of economic and financial variables, has significantly increased. Economic and Business Forecasting introduces statistical techniques that can help characterize the behavior of economic relationships, testing whether certain series such as output, employment, profits, and interest rates exhibit a steady pace of growth over time, or if that pace has drifted.

Focused on a select set of major economic and financial variables&;such as economic growth, final sales, employment, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, financial ratios and the exchange value of the dollar&;Economic and Business Forecasting employs econometric techniques and the statistical software SAS^TM serves as a template for readers to apply to variables of interest. These variables form the core of an effective decision-making process in both the private and public sectors.

Providing a practical forecasting framework for important everyday applications, this book considers questions including:

• How can we identify economic series that appear to be behaving in typical cyclical fashion compared to those that are not?
• Why have exceptionally low mortgage interest rates not spurred a pickup in housing as in prior recoveries?
• If a time series displays a cyclical component, how does it behave as we move through the business cycle?
• Do turning points in the time series lead or lag those of other series?

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting with the proven guidance found in Economic and Business Forecasting.