History has entered the planetary phase of civilization. The world is growing more connected, binding people and the biosphere more tightly into one global system with one destiny. In this context the global economy has grown rapidly, yet poverty persists, inequality increases, and global environmental degradation deepens.
Great Transition stands in contrast to other global visions. Market Forces is a scenario of rapid economic globalization, driven by the Washington Consensus agenda of free trade and privatization. It advertises the economic dynamism of corporate-led globalization, while ignoring its tendency to concentrate power, increase inequality, and degrade the global commons.
The critics of the Market Forces vision span a broad ideological spectrum, but sound a common warning - social polarization, economic instability, and environmental degradation could interact and spiral out of control. Inadvertently, a general global crisis could lead to the authoritarian response of a Fortress World scenario -- a dark vision of global apartheid.
To counter such risk, the Policy Reform scenario would modify Market Forces patterns with a comprehensive government-led program. Yet, incremental adjustments to highly unsustainable trends are simply insufficient. The reform vision requires an unparalleled level of political will and social consensus that are currently absent.
Many who reject market-driven globalization, yet find the reform agenda deficient, have been drawn to localist alternatives. Eco-Communalism is a scenario rooted in a small-is-beautiful ethic, which emphasizes highly decentralized political, economic, and cultural arrangements
The Great Transition paradigm endorses many of the ideals of Eco-communalism. It seeks a world where the quality of human knowledge, creativity and self-realization, not the quantity of goods and services, signals development. But rather than reject globalization, it validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization, economic interdependence, and cooperative efforts to build a harmonious and sustainable global society.
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Dr.The overarching theme of his work has been envisioning and analyzing alternative scenarios of development, and identifying the strategies, policies and values for a transition toward a future of environmental sustainability and human justice. Toward this larger aim, his work has ranged across themes (energy, water, climate change, ecosystems, development) and spatial scales (regional, national, river basin, global). He has pioneered integrated methods for long-range social and environmental assessment. This has led to a suite of computer-based tools that are now used in scores of countries, building the capacity of a new group of sustainability professionals. His path-breaking work with the GSG culminated in the influential essay Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, which offers a rigorously grounded case for an alternative paradigm for global development in the 21st century. Dr. Raskin brought these insights to his work as a member of the U.S. National Academy of Science's Board on Sustainability, as a lead author for the IPCC and Millennium Ecosystem Assessments, as a key adviser to the UNEP Global Environment Outlook series, to drafting the Earth Charter, and numerous other efforts. He taught at the university level until founding the Tellus Institute in 1976.
Dr. Raskin received a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from Columbia University in 1970.
The planetary phase of history has begun, its ultimate shape profoundly uncertain. Will global development veer toward a world of impoverished people, cultures and nature? Or will there be a Great Transition toward a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and environmental sustainability? Though perhaps improbable, such a shift is still possible.
The book examines the historic roots of this fateful crossroads for world development, and scans different scenarios that can emerge from contemporary forces and contradictions. This work of engagement as well as analysis points to strategies, values and choices for advancing a Great Transition. in an exploration of the requirements for a sustainable world. Many global and regional assessments have relied upon the Group's research.
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