SOLAR ACTIVITY, PLANET CYCLES, AND THE WORLD OF FINANCE

It is now several hundred years since astronomy and astrology were taught as one subject. The divergence of the two disciplines is unfortunate and perhaps particularly so for the astro-trader, for whom understanding of solar conditions and planetary cycles offers unique perspective. Exploration of the financial universe must start with a review of recent solar activity. In forecasting trends, an appreciation of the solar conditions on which mankind depends is imperative.

It is convenient for us to think of our Sun as a ball of fire but it is, in fact, a ball of gas which appears in the sky as a circle — an optical illusion. However, its shape and size fluctuate, with solar flares and bursts of energy causing its size and shape to be ever-changing. The electromagnetic emissions, carried through the solar winds, take the form of radio, x-ray, and gamma waves which can be measured. The strength of these waves has considerable effect on life in all forms, on terrestrial weather system and, with the development of global communication systems (satellites etc), the computerized information highway on which traders have come to rely.

In particular, and as one cycle — the sunspot cycle — ebbs and flows, so does the number of geomagnetic occurrences in which there is a temporary disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere caused by a solar wind shock wave interacting with the Earth's magnetic field. These events have the potential to disrupt satellite communication systems and, as they are as yet unpredictable, could yet cause mayhem at many levels.

In the case of the latter, consider this: at 07.04 EST on May 13, 1921 a solar magnetic storm was the cause of signal and switching system failure on the New York Central Railroad below 125th Street. The same storm affected telephone, telegraph, and cable traffic across Europe.

Can you imagine the economic effect of the widespread disruption of communications should a similar event occur today?

A rather different, but no less powerful solar action: this time a Coronal Mass Ejection on March 9, 1989, resulted in a severe geomagnetic storm bringing short wave radio interference that prompted some US military experts to think that the Soviets were attacking. This solar eruption lasted for some time and, at 2:44am on March 13, 1989, Hydro-Quebec's power grid was adversely affected: leading to a nine hour shut down — once again with major economic consequences. In August of that same year, another storm produced a halt to trading on the Toronto stock market; their computer systems were affected.

Helioseismologists, who study solar storms, know far more now than they did even half a century ago. Yet even today it is hard to predict solar activity and then have in place systems to prevent serious harm.

The big question is: "What causes solar output to vary?" The likely candidates may be the planets.

We know that the planets are held in orbit by their gravitational relationship with the Sun. The interconnection between each planet and the Sun varies according to the position and size of the planet involved. It may be that the positions of the planets collectively impacts activity on and in the Sun itself, though of course, the truth may be far more complex — and exciting. (Read Gregory Sams' fascinating book Sun of gOd for thoughts on our sun's consciousness.)

There are times when several planets are closely grouped. The pull or gravitational forces they each exert on our special star creates intense activity; manifesting as swirls or sunspots and coronal holes on its surface. Moreover, the presence of two of the planet "gas giants" (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune) on one side of the Sun is enough to pull the Sun toward it, resulting in spectacular eruptions of energy on that side of the Sun. In 2020, Jupiter and Saturn are joined by Pluto on one side of the Sun, and are joined for some days in early 2021, by Mercury, Venus, and Mars. The potential for significant solar activity is clearly signalled.

Dr Theodor Landscheit has worked in the field of solar science for many years. His book Sun-Earth-Man published by the Urania Trust in 1987 is a classic. Since then Dr Landscheit and others have continued to study the effect of the gravitational pull of the planets on the Sun. They now have an impressive list of accurate forecasts to their credit. You can find out more at www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

Given the planet pictures for 2020 and 2021, it is reasonable to forecast extraordinary activity with probable consequences in the world of finance. These are explored in the concluding chapters of this book.

While focus on the early years of the next decade is understandable given the extraordinary line-up of planets, we should also take note of the longer cycles associated with solar activity.

100 and 510 YEAR CYCLES DROUGHT CYCLES: THE WHEELER CYCLE

A drought cycle was determined by Professor Raymond Wheeler of the University of Kansas. He found an average cycle length of approximately 100 years (varies between 70 and 120 years) which he later thought to be part of a much longer, perhaps 510-year cycle.

This 510-year cycle compares favorably with the Neptune-Pluto cycle where the two planets appear aligned every 492 years. Within each Neptune-Pluto conjunction-to-conjunction cycle of 492 years, there are five shorter declination cycles of varying length but whose average is 100 years. Certainly it is worth exploring the two Neptune-Pluto cycles against Wheeler's two cycles.

As he suggested, the 500-year cycle coincides with marked shift of economic activity from the East to West hemisphere and back again. The most recent Neptune-Pluto conjunction took place at the end of the 19th century and already it is possible to see that the balance of trade is moving Eastward, just as the earlier one which coincided with Columbus' discovery of the Americas, witnessed emphasis on Western trade.

Though this longer cycle is not of obvious interest to today's market traders, the phase of the shorter 100-year cycles is of use — particularly to those trading soft commodities. Understanding of these cycles is of value in forecasting years of probable plenty (and therefore low prices) and leaner years when prices are likely to rise.

Wheeler's work indicated that the 100-year cycle could be divided into four distinct phases: "Cold-Dry," followed by "Warm-Wet," which is in turn followed by "Warm-Dry," with the final phase being "Cold-Wet." His study traced at least 78 major climate changes since 2500 BC with international wars occurring mostly during the warm periods and civil ones during colder periods.

While Wheeler's average 100-year cycle can be divided into four distinct phases, they are not of equal length. The present Warm-Dry period began...