The 2012 Election as a Team Sports

DAVID B. MAGLEBY

Continuing a trend, the 2012 federal election saw more money raised and spent than any other election in U.S. history. Although not all expenditures are reported, our best estimate is that at least $8 billion was spent in the 2012 federal elections. This estimate includes what we know from candidate, party committee, and interest group disclosure reports to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), and interviews we conducted with several interest groups active in 2011 and 2012. The $8 billion spending estimate for federal elections constitutes a more than $1.6 billion increase in inflation-adjusted dollars over 2008 (a 25 percent rise) and a more than $3 billion increase over 2004.

The substantial increase of spending in 2012 when compared to 2008 and 2004 is all the more noteworthy given that the country had experienced a major recession and that only one party had a contested presidential nomination. Part of the rise in overall spending was attributable to increased spending in congressional elections in 2012 over previous years. Contrary to these trends, spending by presidential candidates was down by $455 million in 2012 compared with 2008, in part because only one party had a contested nomination and the cycle was slower to start than in 2008. However, the dip in presidential candidate spending was largely invisible to voters because outside groups and the national party committees more than made up the difference. Looking just at the spending in the presidential race in 2012, we estimate a total of more than $2.3 billion was spent by candidates, parties, individuals, and groups, with Mitt Romney and allies at near parity in spending with Barack Obama and allies.

The most important change in the way the 2012 election was financed was the return of outside money on a large scale to federal elections. Outside money is campaign spending by individuals, groups, or parties done outside the control of the candidates or their campaigns. In 2012, groups and parties acting independently spent at least $1.7 billion in support of or opposition to federal candidates. Spending by groups other than the candidates and parties was subject to fewer restrictions than in previous elections. As Anthony Corrado explains in detail in chapter 2, the regulatory environment going into the 2012 election had been reshaped both legally and psychologically by the Supreme Court rulings in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission and SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission. These two cases, combined with the court's 2007 decision in Federal Election Commission v. Wisconsin Right to Life, Inc., in which the court reversed its decision in McConnell v. Federal Election Commission regarding electioneering communications, or what are often called "issue ads," meant individuals and groups had much greater latitude in spending money to influence the outcome of federal elections.

Presidential contests traditionally take center stage in presidential election years, and this was again true in 2012. Owing in part to the slow economic recovery the country was experiencing, Republicans were optimistic about winning back the White House, and some pre-election modeling projected that the GOP would quite likely win the presidency. It was also uncertain whether a second Obama candidacy could achieve the same level of grassroots enthusiasm and fundraising success as it had experienced in 2008. Despite these possible limitations, the Obama campaign was expected to spend in excess of $1 billion in the 2011–12 cycle. At the time, some questioned whether that would be possible given the struggling economy and some evidence of a demoralized base in the Democratic Party.

In congressional contests, most attention was focused on a few high-profile U.S. Senate races. Given that the Democrats were defending twenty-three seats, several of which were in historically Republican states, there was a real possibility that the Democrats could lose their majority. Accordingly, some interest groups such as the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), an environmental group that supported Democrats, made Senate races their highest priority for independent expenditures in 2012. If Obama were to be defeated, these interest groups sought to build a "firewall" of forty-one Democratic Senate votes, which would be enough to block filibusters designed to weaken environmental laws or regulations. As it turned out, the LCV and other pro-Democratic groups not only helped reelect Obama but also helped Democrats win a net gain of two Senate seats, giving the Democrats fifty-five senators, well above the forty-one-seat firewall.

The GOP went into the 2012 election with 242 U.S. House seats, while the Democrats held 193 seats, meaning the Democrats would need a net gain of twenty-five seats to retake the majority. Democrats had suffered major losses in 2010, with Republicans picking up a net gain of sixty-three seats and the majority. Redistricting following the 2010 census had also hurt Democrats. Republicans did well in state legislative and gubernatorial races in 2010, allowing them to control the redistricting process in eighteen states while Democrats had control in only in six. As the political scientist Gary Jacobson has written, "After redistricting, there were 11 more Republican-leaning districts, 5 fewer Democratic-leaning districts, and 6 fewer balanced districts." Given these factors, few prognosticators saw the Democrats as having a serious shot at winning a House majority in 2012. Republicans had a net loss of 8 seats but were able to retain a 234-201 seat majority in the House after the election.

Republicans' success in House elections in 2010 and 2012 has meant that they have controlled at least one congressional chamber during more than half of the Obama presidency. In an era of a sharply polarized Congress, the sense that control of Congress is possibly up for grabs has been a frequent refrain in fundraising appeals to supporters of both parties.

Given the competitive nature of presidential contests since at least 2000 and the possibility of a change in party control of one or both houses of Congress, how did 2012 compare with earlier cycles in overall spending? Figure 1-1 plots the inflation-adjusted candidate expenditures in presidential, House, and Senate elections by election cycle.

Inflation-adjusted spending by presidential candidates rose only gradually between 1976 and 2000, in part because of public financing. Campaign finance reforms in the 1970s established a system of...