Future Savvy: How to Filter Forecasts and Extract the Value You Need - Hardcover

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Adam Gordon is an expert in strategic foresight and its application to real-world industry and policy leadership. He has been an analyst, consultant, planner, facilitator, and teacher in the field, and his work has been featured on NPR’ s Morning Edition and CNN World Report. Adam is the director of The Future Studio, UK, and was previously a Senior Associate at Coates & Jarratt, Inc., a futures consulting firm in Washington, D.C. He maintains an author blog forum on topics related to Future Savvy at www.futuresavvy.net

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Why do some business predictions seem to “hit the nail on the head” while other miss their mark so badly? Do some companies and analysts have a crystal ball that affords them a clearer view of the future? Or do they just seem to ride a tide of good luck?

While circumstance, fortuitous timing, and good fortune may occasionally play into eventual outcomes, more often than not the quality of business forecasting is directly aligned with the care taken in its design, implementation, and interpretation.

Future Savvy shows how to evaluate—more objectively and thoroughly—the business, technology, marketing, and cultural forecasts that flood the media daily, and reveals the strengths and shortcomings of think-tank and consultant reports, stock market analysis, government forecasting, and more. Gordon presents a clear, proven, repeatable methodology for “separating the wheat from the chaff” when researching and analyzing trends and data. A frank and illuminating guide to finding truths often obfuscated by hype and misinformation, Future Savvy takes a hard look at the factors that most often push potentially good forecasting off course. Pulling no punches and leaving a streamlined and constructive critical methodology, the book presents a comprehensive array of pointed questions that must be aimed at any predictive process in order to gauge its validity and the probability of its success.

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There is no shortage of forecasting available to businesses looking to anticipate and profit from future trends. But what information, from the endless sea of sources, is valid? How do you know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Most important, which ones do you let guide your business s decisions?

As huge an industry as business forecasting is, it s a wonder how amorphous it remains. As explained by author Adam Gordon, there is virtually no regulation, no serious accountability, and no quantifiable track record. There is no accepted conceptual framework, agreed professional standards, or guidelines for application to policy or business decision making. In fact, there s not even a clear definition of what forecasting is.

That said, it is unwise to discount the importance of forecasting. After all, your company s decisions will play out not in the present, but in a future that is bound to be different. What will the financial landscape be months or years from now? How will technology affect your company and your industry? What factors will shape the demand for your product or service? Understandably, it is imperative that you attempt to predict the future business environment, lest you be caught flat-footed by the ever-increasing pace of change.

Future Savvy gives you a battery of critical tests to apply to any forecast in order to assess its validity and its relevance to your business s strategic decisions. In sifting through the endless reams of information you receive in the form of predictions, you will now be able to:

• Distinguish between (and apply) future-aligning versus future-influencing forecasting
• Combine short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting to create a three-dimensional model of the future
• Decrease reliance on so-called hard data that may not be as inarguable as you think
• See through biases in research, consider the source and motivation behind any analysis, and approach information from the perspective most relevant to your organization s needs
• Assess the value of forecasting as it pertains to the nature and timing of specific outcomes
• Avoid the common pitfalls in trend-based forecasting and use better alternatives
• Develop multiple future scenarios
• And more

The author synthesizes all of these powerful analytical tools into a template that allows you to apply forecast filtering, a systematic deconstruction that accounts for all possible sources of inconsistency, fallibility, or bias in any presentation of predictive information.

Remember, the information you receive is only as solid as the approach you take to its interpretation. If your decisions are ill-informed, no one will blame the forecasters, whoever they may have been. Using the approaches in Future Savvy, you stand a much better chance of parlaying information into strong results, and when you come across yet another breathless article about the latest new thing, you will have the tools to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs.

Adam Gordon is an expert in the field of industry foresight and future studies. He has been an analyst, consultant, facilitator, and professor, and has appeared on NPR s Morning Edition and CNN World Report. He also writes, teaches, and consults for The Future Studio and was previously a Senior Associate at Coates & Jarratt, Inc., a future