CHAPTER 1

WHY SO UNCERTAIN?

It is the bottom of the ninth; the game clock ticks to zero; the goalie has aweak knee; the star forward has five fouls; and the soprano just missed hercue. It is your move; you have the puck. What do you do? What game areyou playing and how can you win? This may sound like the punch line of anightmare, but for many of us it feels more like Tuesday at the office. We oftenfind ourselves in unfamiliar territory, working toward shifting goals, with colleagueswho seem to be from another universe. Today, it is sometimes hard totell who works for whom. Relationships are shaped by inconsistent and oftenconfusing cultural, social, emotional, and business practices. We are neverquite sure what to expect or how (and by whom) our success would be judged.It is increasingly difficult to make sense of complex and uncertain patterns inorganizations. There are questions about goals, rules, equipment, and skillsthat separate winners from losers. Relationships that might have held overthe long haul are challenged by changing expectations and loyalties. Careersdo not follow predictable, predetermined patterns. Economic indicators areconfusing even to the experts. All of us have trouble making sense of the gamewe are playing and figuring out what we have to do to win.

The Infinite Game

What rules prove to be constant in your day-to-day experience at work and athome? If you are anything like our clients or like us, you live and work in anenvironment where new rules are written and old ones are broken every day.James Carse saw the emerging complexity of the world back in the 1980s. Hewrote a lovely little book called Finite and Infinite Games to distinguish predictable,closed-system games from the ones that were open and unpredictable.Traditionally, finite games have shaped our experience and our success.

In a finite game, it is easy to make sense. Everyone agrees on the goal; therules are known; and the field of play has clear boundaries. Baseball, football,and bridge are examples of finite games. At one time in the not-so-distantpast, we expected careers, marriages, parenthood, education, and citizenshipto be finite games. When everyone agrees on the rules, and the consequencesof our actions are undeniable, responsible people plan for what they want,take steps to achieve it, and enjoy the fruits of their labor. We know what ittakes to make sense in a finite game.

Most of us realize that we are playing a very different game. We are playingan infinite game in which the boundaries are unclear or nonexistent, thescorecard is hidden, and the goal is not to win but to keep the game in play.There are still rules, but the rules can change without notice. There are stillplans and playbooks, but many games are going on at the same time, andthe winning plans can seem contradictory. There are still partners and opponents,but it is hard to know who is who, and besides that, the "who is who"changes unexpectedly.

Every day, the newspaper is full of examples of unexpected and sometimesunknowable developments. The mortgage market tanks, an Interstate bridgeacross the Mississippi River collapses, youth in London turn into lawlessmobs, earthquakes hit Washington, D.C., and a tsunami devastates Japan.

In such complex and unpredictable environments, important factors thatshape the future are unknowable. Social, economic, climactic, and politicalchanges erupt without warning. We can plan, but we expect our plans to goawry. We can work toward our goals, but we understand that our work may bein vain. We experience unintended consequences that too often punish whatshould be rewarded and reward what should be punished. We need new waysto make sense in complex organizations. As individuals and organizations, weneed the capacity to adapt to the unexpected. We need adaptive action.

Every day, forces we do not control reshape the landscapes of life in thetwenty-first century. Not only are the rules of the game of life changing, butthe game itself is being transformed. Not only are we playing a different game,but we are called on to play many games at the same time. Not only are weplaying many games, no one knows who will get prizes in the end, and forwhat. It's your move. Life is uncertain. What do you do?

Economic foundations sit on quicksand of derived values and float onbubbles of speculation. Would it be possible to see, understand, and respondto economic turmoil in ways that reduced risk and increase value for us andour organizations?

Cultural and national loyalties shift too quickly or lock in too tightly forcivil stability to be sustained. Might we see early signals of dissatisfaction sowe could understand and influence the public discourse toward peaceful andproductive dialogue?

Technology moves from imagination to reality to obsolescence at breathtakingspeed. Can we consumers, producers, suppliers, and service providersdevelop the capacity to keep up with the pace of technical change?

Massive, ubiquitous, and direct communications contribute to both intractablestability and incomprehensible disruption. Can we read the landscapeand establish...