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Power in Uncertain Times

Stanford University Press

Contents

List of Figures and Tables...........................................ixPreface..............................................................xi1 The Fog of Peace...................................................12 Strategic Choice in Uncertain Times................................123 Post–Crimean War Period, 1856–1910.....................364 Inter–World War Period, 1918–1939......................785 United States, 1990–2010.....................................1256 Consequences of Strategic Choices..................................162Notes................................................................179Bibliography.........................................................209Index................................................................241

Chapter One

THE UNITED STATES faces a bewildering array of strategic challenges today. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have dominated headlines in recent years, but the problems posed by North Korea, nuclear Iran, rising China, resurgent Russia, and spreading violent extremism vie for attention and resources. The perceptual reference points and decision frameworks that guided national security decision making since the mid-twentieth century are no longer meaningful in today's world. The strategic environment has been characterized in national security documents and debates over the past decade as uncertain and chaotic. A more accurate descriptor is "complex." There is no dominant threat, no single strategic challenger, no clear enemy. Relative to the Cold War context that forged and honed our strategic constructs, we now confront a greater number of threats, greater diversity in the types of security actors that can threaten our interests, and a more interdependent world in which rapidly emerging technologies quickly diffuse and are exploited by others in unanticipated ways.

Geopolitical developments had already overturned Cold War givens before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Ethnic and religious extremists threatened peace. Nonstate actors, newly empowered by globalization and the information revolution, threatened to disrupt the information systems and critical infrastructure that undergird modern society. Proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons technologies and expertise were diffusing the capability to cause massive damage and eroding prevailing international norms constraining the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Technological advances associated with an information technology revolution were beginning to transform military competition and warfare. Strategic planners always confront uncertainty as they prepare for conflict "(1) that will occur at some indeterminate point in the future, (2) against an opponent who may not yet be identified, (3) in political conditions which one cannot accurately predict, and (4) in an arena of brutality and violence which one cannot replicate." Complexity exacerbates these normal difficulties because resources must be allocated, personnel must be trained, and plans must be forged in the absence of a strategic rival.

This book examines how leaders respond in a complex and uncertain world. The overwhelming power of the United States is in many ways unprecedented; but the challenges America faces are not so different from those faced by others when long-standing rivals collapsed, alignment patterns shifted, and new types of threats emerged. Some opted to react to present challenges at the expense of preparing for future unforeseen contingencies; others reversed these priorities. Some tried to shape the structure of the international system; others reactively adapted. Some crafted strategies to be robust across a range of contingencies; others adopted focused strategies. During times of rapid technological change, some acted to capture the opportunities of first-mover advantages; others postponed major investments in new and emerging technologies. These same choices confront the United States today.

QUESTIONS ADDRESSED, WHY THEY ARISE

How do states respond when they face no strategic rival and have no overarching threat? What strategies do they pursue, and what explains their strategic choices? What are the risks and consequences of different strategies for power, influence, and preparedness for war?

These questions lie at the heart of this book. They arise because they have not received adequate attention by scholars. The focus of inquiry has been on critical turning points in world history leading up to the outbreak of war or after wars end. There is a robust literature on the causes of war and sources of instability when threats are high or escalating. Realist scholarship and balance-of-power theory explain why states balance, buck-pass, or bandwagon when threats are rising. The literature on deterrence, crisis management, escalation, alliance formation, and postwar institutional arrangements is also broad and deep.

In between the run-ups to major wars are longer periods when the threat is not clear or well understood. Threat uncertainty is not uncommon. It follows after the disappearance of a traditional or familiar threat. This usually occurs after a major war, but rivals may implode, as the Soviet Union did, or become partners through peaceful reconciliation. Absent a clear enemy, a state may face a number of potential threats over the horizon, no threats even at a distance, or novel, diffuse, unfamiliar threats in the near term and long term. In each case, no "burning house" exists to focus on.

The field has focused disproportionately on a narrow slice of world history—periods of high threat—giving short shrift to the rest of the time, when states operate in the fog of peace. The extant literature tells us far less about the strategies adopted under these conditions and the consequences that follow. Yet the problems facing strategic planners when the threat is low differ from those they confront when the threat is high. The logic of strategic choice also differs. In uncertain times, the problem is not how to respond to a specific threat. The challenges are to identify and understand a range of threats, anticipate the types of wars that may arise in the future, balance responses to present challenges with preparations for future contingencies, and ensure the state is well positioned to compete effectively when new unanticipated challenges arise.

States always plan under uncertainty. The issue here is planning in uncertain times. The timeliness of this study stems from the uncertain conditions that characterize the present security environment of the United States, that have done so for nearly two decades, and that most likely will continue to do so in the future. The United States is no longer burdened by the threat of massive nuclear exchange and possesses overwhelming conventional military superiority. It faces no peer; nor is a potential rival chasing closely behind. The European Union is an economic rival but not a military one. Economic and military transformations underway in China could propel it to superpower status in the next half-century. India is also poised to emerge as a global superpower. But neither Asian state is nipping closely at the heels of the United States. History shows that strategic choices made in uncertain...