Über die Autorinnen und Autoren

Auszug. © Genehmigter Nachdruck. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Dark Logic

Stanford University Press

Contents

List of Illustrations......................................................viiAcknowledgments............................................................ix1 Introduction: The Central Question.......................................12 Transnational Organized Crime's Changing Threat..........................153 Corruption/Violence and Individual/State Security........................414 Major Transnational Criminal Organizations...............................665 Major Transnational Criminal Activities..................................916 Analysis of Case Patterns................................................1277 Links between Transnational Criminals and Terrorists.....................1458 Conclusion: Policy Implications..........................................162Notes......................................................................197Bibliography...............................................................229Index......................................................................251

Chapter One

The Central Question

SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR, transnational nonstate forces have been a major source of global instability, and many ominous disruptive flows of people, goods, and services have moved readily across international boundaries. Deflecting attention away from transnational organized crime as a primary facilitator of these critical disruptive flows was first the sense of euphoria associated with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and then later the focus on transnational terrorism triggered by the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001. Although some analysts go too far in claiming that currently "the dimensions of global organized crime present a greater international security challenge than anything western democracies had to cope with during the Cold War," the transnational criminal threat is nonetheless highly insidious at a lower level. There is now a pivotal hole in our understanding of transnational criminals' decision making about the means to pursue their illicit ends and the security implications of these decisions.

This investigation begins to remedy this crucial analytical deficiency. Challenging puzzles requiring probing investigation surround the pervasive yet clandestine presence of transnational organized crime in the contemporary world, and focusing on these puzzles provides deeper insight into the nature of its operations and their consequences. So little is known about the modus operandi of transnational criminal organizations, and what little understanding does exist rarely distinguishes among their disruptive tactics or links these tactics to different kinds of security impacts. Consequently, an urgent need exists to explore within the contemporary international relations environment the dark logic behind transnational organized crime, its subtle fluid patterns, and the resulting interference with effective security protection.

Proper appraisal of the disruptive tactics, security impacts, and corrective responses pertaining to transnational organized crime involves considerable complexity. Indeed, upon closer scrutiny, many conventional assumptions about the causes, consequences, and cures of transnational criminal activities prove to be controversial, wrongheaded, or ill-advised. Disagreements abound among experts even about the most basic issue of whether transnational organized crime is worthy of security attention. Today many global political leaders possess conflicting conceptions and misunderstandings about how to gauge the elusive dangers involved, and, as a result, their policy responses have generally failed to achieve stated goals. This investigation's primary aim is to shed significant new light on the topic to create a more coherent and probing comprehension of the operational dynamics of transnational organized crime, the ways in which it disrupts security, the reasons for its success and the failure of attempts to constrain it, and some fresh ideas to help those responsible to grapple more successfully with this global threat.

THE NATURE OF THIS STUDY'S CENTRAL QUESTION

This study focuses on two particular issues: (1) when and how transnational criminal organizations choose corruption and violence tactics and (2) when and how transnational criminal activities generate individual/human and national/state security impacts. The specific central question is as follows:

Under what conditions is it most likely that transnational criminal organizations choose to rely primarily on corruption versus violence in their illicit cross-border transactions, and under what conditions is it most likely that transnational criminal activities primarily influence individual security versus state security?

This constitutes the first major study showing (1) when corruption and violence are most likely to be used, (2) when transnational criminal activities are most likely to affect individual security and state security, and (3) when the negative consequences of these tactics and activities can be most successfully combated. The presumed sequence is that first transnational criminal organizations select tactics to use in their activities, and then these activities generate security impacts, and discerning the criminal choice of tactics and their security impacts relies more on tangible observable behavior rather than elusive underlying motivations.

At this juncture, one might well ask, Why is the distinction between the criminal tactics of corruption and violence worthy of investigation? Certainly it could be argued that, because both tactics represent unruly disruptive behavior, those wishing to combat transnational organized crime would incur an equal responsibility to minimize each, thus making fine distinctions between the two unnecessary (in the colloquial words of one defense analyst, "since both are bad, let's just stamp them both out"). As illustrated in later chapters, however, (1) the vulnerabilities that facilitate widespread criminal corruption are quite distinct from those that facilitate widespread criminal violence, (2) the targets for corruption differ markedly from the targets for violence, and, as a result, (3) the means for containing corruption differ markedly from the means for containing violence.

Similarly, one might ask, What is the rationale for differentiating between the influence of transnational organized crime on individual/human security and the influence of transnational organized crime on national/state security? One could readily assert that the most important issue—given the magnitude of the dangers involved—is to reduce the aggregate threat transnational organized crime poses with regard to any form of security, and that attempting to separate its impact on different types of security is like splitting hairs. Some analysts argue that, especially within democracies, promoting state security automatically enhances individual security, and most analysts of transnational organized crime make little distinction among different types of resulting security implications. Again, as discussed in later chapters, (1) the criminal threat to individual and societal well-being is vastly different from the criminal threat to government functioning; (2) the individual/human and...