MASTER BUILDERS AND DECONSTRUCTIONISTS

THE GLOBAL SYSTEM created over many decades to prevent nuclear proliferation can be likened to a construction project. The construction is only as sturdy as the common resolve of the five nations with nuclear weapons that also enjoy permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council. As the world's strongest power, the United States has the most responsibility for building maintenance. If Washington walks away from this job, the construction site will become unsafe. But even if the United States does its job properly, Russia, China, France, and Great Britain still have to support the structure. When the five permanent members of the Security Council work in concert against the perils of proliferation, the construction provides reliable shelter. When they place other national security and commercial interests ahead of proliferation concerns, the construction becomes wobbly.

The building's load-bearing walls consist of agreements, rules, and norms designed to prevent proliferation. Treaties that set legally binding obligations constitute the steel beams that keep this structure erect. The most important rules are set by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (or Nonproliferation Treaty), which was negotiated in 1968. The Nonproliferation Treaty is built around two central bargains: States that possess the Bomb promise to disarm, and states without the Bomb promise continued abstinence—so long as they can reap the benefits of the peaceful uses of the atom. The Non-proliferation Treaty initially had only forty-three signatories. Adherence grew slowly. Two of the five permanent members of the Security Council, China and France, did not join until 1992. The Nonproliferation Treaty is now the most inclusive treaty of all—every state has joined, except Israel, India, and Pakistan.

This construction project continues to grow with the addition of new tenants, export controls, additional treaties, and administrative rules and regulations designed to prevent proliferation. The building managers are based in Vienna, where the International Atomic Energy Agency is based. The agency is overseen by a board of governors representing thirty-five countries. Important decisions require a two-thirds majority on the board. Enforcement decisions require the backing of the United Nations Security Council. National leaders provide the brick for this immense construction project, and international civil servants supply the mortar.

The creation of this global system to prevent proliferation was one of the great achievements of the cold war. It was not easy to convince nations to abstain from obtaining the most powerful weapons of all—weapons that many states had the capacity to build. Throughout recorded history, humans have sought clubs to use against enemies. When humans banded together to form tribes, they sought bigger clubs. And when tribes banded together to form nations, this impulse became stronger still. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate club, but this weapon is so powerful that abstinence became conceivable—under certain protections.

Abstinence needed to be a rational calculation and not an act of faith. The rational calculation was that, if more nations sought the Bomb, others would follow, and the net effect would be great insecurity. This rational calculation, in turn, depended on intrusive monitoring and the backup provided by states possessing the Bomb, especially the United States and the Soviet Union. Without their common resolve, this construction project would never have gotten off the ground.

Early construction included the first treaty limiting nuclear testing, new regulations dealing with nuclear exports, and rudimentary inspections and safeguards at nuclear facilities. To stabilize their nuclear competition and to shore up their end of the Nonproliferation Treaty bargain, Washington and Moscow agreed to modest limits on their nuclear forces and significant limits on missile defenses. By the end of the cold war, treaties mandating deep cuts and the abolition of entire categories of nuclear forces were negotiated, which also helped shore up the Nonproliferation Treaty.

Some construction on the first floor was only partly completed. One room for a treaty that would end nuclear tests for all time was built but never occupied; this treaty was negotiated in 1996 but remains in limbo because the United States, China, India, Pakistan, and others are balking at its terms. Other planned construction was never undertaken, especially a treaty banning the production of fissile material for weapons.

Constructing the first floor of this edifice required consensus, not only between the superpowers but also between weapon possessors and abstainers. During the first nuclear age, this foundation remained strong. Even though the nuclear arsenals of both superpowers rose to absurd levels, new additions to the nuclear club were kept reasonably in check. One country (Israel) covertly acquired the Bomb, and two more (India and Pakistan) positioned themselves on this threshold. But many more countries that seriously considered the nuclear option decided to throw their lot in with the Nonproliferation Treaty.

The second nuclear age began in 1991with the demise of the Soviet Union and the surprise discovery in Iraq of an advanced bomb program. Although U.S. and Soviet nuclear arsenals declined significantly, concerns grew over horizontal proliferation, especially in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran. The scope of the proliferation problem also expanded to include extremist groups, profiteering middlemen, and transactions between outlier states.

The structure built to prevent proliferation during the first nuclear age was not designed to deal with new members of the nuclear club or the threat of nuclear terrorism. Some expected it to fall down. North Korea declared its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003, and Iran could be headed for the same exit. At the same time, none of the five permanent members of the Security Council acted like strong stakeholders during the second nuclear age. At best, they paid lip service to their commitment to eliminate the Bomb, and they had difficulties forming a common front to stop the Iranian nuclear program. The other central bargain of the Nonproliferation Treaty—that abstainers deserved help in acquiring the peaceful uses of nuclear energy—was misused. Nuclear commerce helped North Korea build nuclear weapons, a path that Iran is following.

The Nonproliferation Treaty was designed for an earlier era, before the advent of a single dominant military power, underground networks of nuclear commerce, and terrorist cells seeking nuclear weapons and fissile material. The Nonproliferation Treaty was far sturdier in a bipolar world when the superpowers could impose discipline when they agreed with each other. The first nuclear age was an exercise in establishing norms against...