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New Directions in the Study of China's Foreign Policy

STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

Contents

List of Figures and Tables................................................................................................................ixContributors..............................................................................................................................xiEditors' Preface..........................................................................................................................xv1. Introduction ROBERT S. ROSS AND ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON................................................................................1Part I. Security Studies2. Comparative Deterrence: The Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula ROBERT S. ROSS.....................................................133. Windows and War: Trend Analysis and Beijing's Use of Force THOMAS J. CHRISTENSEN......................................................504. China's Decision for War with India in 1962 JOHN W. GARVER............................................................................865. Across the Yalu: China's Interests and the Korean Peninsula in a Changing World AVERY GOLDSTEIN.......................................1316. The Limits of Economic Interdependence: Sino-Japanese Relations MICHAEL YAHUDA........................................................1627. Reputation and the Security Dilemma: China Reacts to the China Threat Theory YONG DENG................................................186Part II. China and Globalization8. More Than Just Saying No: China's Evolving Approach to Sovereignty and Intervention Since Tiananmen ALLEN CARLSON.....................2179. China in Geneva: Lessons from China's Early Years in the World Trade Organization MARGARET M. PEARSON.................................24210. Chinese Foreign Policy Faces Globalization Challenges SAMUEL S. KIM..................................................................276Part III. Domestic Politics11. Identity and Conflict in Sino-American Relations PETER HAYS GRIES....................................................................30912. The Correlates of Beijing Public Opinion Toward the United States, 1998-2004 ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON..................................34013. Conclusions and Future Directions THOMAS J. CHRISTENSEN, ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON, AND ROBERT S. ROSS..................................379Select Bibliography.......................................................................................................................421Index.....................................................................................................................................463

Chapter One

Robert S. Ross and Alastair Iain Johnston

This volume reflects an effort to take stock of the field of Chinese foreign policy and to consider potential avenues of new research. It is a collaborative effort by scholars of different generations and many academic perspectives who share an interest in and commitment to explaining Chinese foreign policy and to using systematically gathered and analyzed evidence. It is not intended to be a comprehensive survey of the field of Chinese foreign policy, which is simply too large and diverse for one volume to be able to cover all the topics, draw on all the relevant theories, and include all the first-rate scholars in the field. Rather, scholars were chosen in an attempt to represent current research in Chinese foreign policy from multiple theoretical perspectives and methodologies and multiple academic generations. To some degree, the timing of the volume is also worth noting: it appears at a point in history when the integration of the People's Republic of China (PRC) with regional and global economic and political institutions has never been greater, and when a narrowing range of tropes of unease about "rising China" are coming to dominate policy and pundit discourses both in the United States and elsewhere. Not only is there greater demand today for information about China's foreign policy, but scholars are able, in principle, to supply greater amounts of sophisticated analysis.

The chapters were first presented at a conference held at the John King Fairbank Center at Harvard University in December 2002. The volume is organized into three subfields of Chinese foreign policy. Part I examines Chinese security policy, including Chinese use of force, policy toward conflicts of interests affecting war and peace, and China's strategy as a rising power. Owing to greater access to Chinese analysts, decision-makers, and documents, these chapters draw on a wider range of materials about the sources and effects of Chinese security policy than was available in the earlier days of the field. Part II considers China as an actor in multilateral institutions and China's response to emerging global trends, including evolving conceptions of sovereignty and the emergence of globalization. These topics are relatively new for the field, reflecting the fact that since the late 1980s, China has advanced more rapidly into international institutional life than any other major state moving from a similar position of isolation. Part III presents new research on domestic-foreign linkages, considering the impact of trends in public opinion and of Chinese identity on China's policy toward major powers. This is a very new subfield, because access to public attitudes has been severely restricted in authoritarian China, and the impact of public opinion on foreign policy has never been considered relevant. With rapid urbanization, marketization, and the diversification of political, economic, and foreign policy preferences, this seems to be changing.

The Study of Chinese Security Policy

Robert Ross examines the role of deterrence and use of force in Chinese foreign policy. His Chapter 2, "Comparative Deterrence: The Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula," places these two theaters of deterrence in the context of the theoretical literature on effective deterrence and on the sources of unstable deterrence and unintended war, enabling comparative analysis of the two theaters and estimates of the likelihood of war in East Asia. Regarding Korea, Ross assesses North Korean deterrence of U.S. use of force for either regime change or denuclearization, and U.S.-South Korean deterrence of North Korean use of force for unification. Regarding the Taiwan Strait, he considers Chinese deterrence of a Taiwan declaration of independence, an "act of war," and U.S. deterrence of Chinese initiation of use of force for unification. Using deterrence theory and concepts of credibility, capability, and expected utility, he considers the effectiveness of mutual deterrence dynamics in each region. He also compares these two deterrence theaters regarding incentives for first strikes and the implications for crisis instability and unintended war. Ross argues that although there is effective mutual deterrence on both the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait so that the status quo is preferred to use of force by all of the otherwise revisionist states, the distinct weapons capabilities of the actors in each theater and the distinct geography of each theater create distinct crisis dynamics. He argues that these differences have made the Korean peninsula a more probable military threat than the Taiwan Strait since the end of the Cold War, and that the Korean peninsula will remain a more likely source of war than the Taiwan Strait.

Thomas Christensen's Chapter...