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Democracy and War

Stanford University Press

Contents

List of Tables and Figures...................................................................................................xiiiAcknowledgments..............................................................................................................xvii1. Introduction: Domestic Institutions, Political Norms, and the Evolution of International Conflict.........................1Central Questions............................................................................................................4Methodology..................................................................................................................11Overview of the Book.........................................................................................................13Significance of the Project..................................................................................................14Notes........................................................................................................................152. The Impact of Institutions and Norms in International Crises..............................................................18Structural Explanations of the Democratic Peace..............................................................................20Normative Explanations of the Democratic Peace...............................................................................27Testing the Arguments........................................................................................................29Case Studies.................................................................................................................48Conclusions..................................................................................................................79Appendix 2.1: Dropping the Aggressive Leader Assumption......................................................................80Appendix 2.2: Crisis Data Set: 337 Conflict Dyads in 301 International Crises................................................83Appendix 2.3: Crises from the ICB Data Set That Have Been Deleted or Merged..................................................89Appendix 2.4: Sensitivity Analysis...........................................................................................91Notes........................................................................................................................923. International Disputes and the Evolution of Conflict......................................................................100The Dispute Data Set.........................................................................................................103Hypotheses and Analysis......................................................................................................105Case Studies.................................................................................................................116Conclusions..................................................................................................................129Appendix 3.1: Dispute Data Set-223 International Conflicts...................................................................130Appendix 3.2: Sensitivity Analysis Displaying Results with the Inclusion of Additional Control Variables.....................133Notes........................................................................................................................1334. Institutional Constraint Versus Regime Type...............................................................................139The Institutional Constraint Model...........................................................................................140Case Studies.................................................................................................................157Conclusions..................................................................................................................191Appendix 4.1: Nested Versus Nonnested Models of the Democratic Peace.........................................................193Notes........................................................................................................................1945. Political Norms Versus Institutional Structures...........................................................................201A Typology of Norms..........................................................................................................206Test 1: New Political Norms Variables for the Statistical Model..............................................................208Test 2: Testing Political Norms with a Logit Model...........................................................................214Test 3: A Laboratory Experiment..............................................................................................219Case Studies.................................................................................................................232Conclusions..................................................................................................................256Appendix 5.1: Scenario Wording by Dimension..................................................................................257Appendix 5.2: Experimental Survey Instrument.................................................................................259Notes........................................................................................................................2606. Democratization and International Conflict................................................................................268Mansfield and Snyder's Theoretical Argument..................................................................................268Regime Change, Norms, and Structures.........................................................................................272Conceptualizing Regime Change................................................................................................274Case Studies.................................................................................................................281Conclusions..................................................................................................................300Notes........................................................................................................................3017. The Evolution of Conflicts, Institutions, and Norms: An Agent-Based Simulation............................................306Strengths and Weaknesses of Agent-Based Computer Simulations.................................................................307Cederman's Agent-Based Model.................................................................................................309Conclusions..................................................................................................................326Appendix 7.1: DomGeoSim Parameter Dictionary and Comparison of Parameters with GeoSim........................................328Notes........................................................................................................................3378. Conclusions...............................................................................................................339Synthesizing Across Cases: The Breakdown of Structural and Normative Constraints.............................................341Future...