Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things: Ed. by Wayne A. Cornelius, Philip L. Martin, Takeyuki Tsuda - Hardcover

Fair, Ray C.

 
9780804745093: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things: Ed. by Wayne A. Cornelius, Philip L. Martin, Takeyuki Tsuda
Hardcover
ISBN 10: 0804745099 ISBN 13: 9780804745093
Verlag: Stanford University Press, 2002

Inhaltsangabe

What do the following events have in common? In 2000, the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a virtual tie. The 1989 and 1990 vintages have turned out to be two of the best ever for Bordeaux wines. In 2001, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate eleven times. The decade of the 1970s was one of the worst on record for U.S. inflation. In 2001, the author of this book, at age 59, ran a marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes, but should have been able to do it in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

This book shows clearly and simply how these diverse events can be explained by using the tools of the social sciences and statistics. It moves from a discussion of formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. Through the use of a rich array of examples, the book demonstrates the power and range of social science and statistical methods.

In addition to "big" topics-presidential elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation-and "not quite so big" topics-wine quality-the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest. Who of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? (In other words, how fast are you slowing down?) As the author works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, demonstrating the usefulness of statistical theory and method, he gives the reader a new way of thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life.

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Über die Autorinnen und Autoren

Ray C. Fair is Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the author of many scholarly articles and a number of books, and he is the co-author of a widely used principles of economics text.


Ray C. Fair is Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the author of many scholarly articles and a number of books, and he is the co-author of a widely used principles of economics text.

Von der hinteren Coverseite

What do the following events have in common? In 2000, the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a virtual tie. The 1989 and 1990 vintages have turned out to be two of the best ever for Bordeaux wines. In 2001, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate eleven times. The decade of the 1970s was one of the worst on record for U.S. inflation. In 2001, the author of this book, at age 59, ran a marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes, but should have been able to do it in 3 hours and 15 minutes.
This book shows clearly and simply how these diverse events can be explained by using the tools of the social sciences and statistics. It moves from a discussion of formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. Through the use of a rich array of examples, the book demonstrates the power and range of social science and statistical methods.
In addition to “big” topics—presidential elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation—and “not quite so big” topics—wine quality—the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest. Who of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? (In other words, how fast are you slowing down?) As the author works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, demonstrating the usefulness of statistical theory and method, he gives the reader a new way of thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life.

Aus dem Klappentext

What do the following events have in common? In 2000, the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a virtual tie. The 1989 and 1990 vintages have turned out to be two of the best ever for Bordeaux wines. In 2001, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate eleven times. The decade of the 1970s was one of the worst on record for U.S. inflation. In 2001, the author of this book, at age 59, ran a marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes, but should have been able to do it in 3 hours and 15 minutes.
This book shows clearly and simply how these diverse events can be explained by using the tools of the social sciences and statistics. It moves from a discussion of formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. Through the use of a rich array of examples, the book demonstrates the power and range of social science and statistical methods.
In addition to big topics presidential elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation and not quite so big topics wine quality the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest. Who of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? (In other words, how fast are you slowing down?) As the author works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, demonstrating the usefulness of statistical theory and method, he gives the reader a new way of thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life.

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PREDICTING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND OTHER THINGS

By Ray C. Fair

STANFORD BUSINESS BOOKS

Copyright © 2002 Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-8047-4509-3

Contents

Introduction: What This Book Is About......................................................11 It's the Economy, Stupid.................................................................5A Theory of Voting Behavior................................................................6The Data...................................................................................13On to the Tools............................................................................152 The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons..........................................................16(Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory.....................................................16(Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data...........................................................17(Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data.........................................................17(Thursday) Lesson 4: Test..................................................................22(Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls....................................................31(Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results...................................................33(Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict.................................................................34Adding More Variables......................................................................37Testing for Other Variables................................................................40Conclusion.................................................................................413 Presidential Elections...................................................................43A Theory of Voting Behavior................................................................43The Data...................................................................................44Fit and Test and Examine...................................................................46Possible Pitfalls..........................................................................51What About the Electoral College?..........................................................54Do Campaigns Matter?.......................................................................55Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes.................................................56Does Congress Matter?......................................................................57Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and Inflation Numbers?...............................574 Predicting the 2000 and 2004 Elections...................................................59After-the-Fact Prediction of the 2000 Election.............................................59Real-Time Predictions of the 2000 Election.................................................61Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using the 1996 Coefficients.....................63Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using the 2000 Coefficients.....................665 Extramarital Affairs.....................................................................67A Theory of Extramarital Affairs...........................................................68The Data...................................................................................71Fit and Test...............................................................................76Possible Pitfalls..........................................................................78Examine the Results and Predict............................................................81Conclusion.................................................................................826 Wine Quality.............................................................................83Theory and Data............................................................................83Fit the Data...............................................................................87Possible Pitfalls..........................................................................89Predict....................................................................................91Can One Make Money?........................................................................957 College Grades and Class Attendance......................................................97Theory and Data............................................................................98Fit, Test, and Examine the Results.........................................................100Possible Pitfalls..........................................................................103Predict....................................................................................1048 Marathon Times...........................................................................105A Theory of the Slowdown Rate..............................................................106The Data...................................................................................108Fit........................................................................................110Use the Results............................................................................116Other Results..............................................................................118Conclusion.................................................................................1219 Interest Rates...........................................................................122A Theory of Fed Behavior...................................................................124The Data...................................................................................127Fit and Test...............................................................................129Possible Pitfalls..........................................................................131Examine the Results........................................................................134Predict Fed Behavior.......................................................................13710 Inflation...............................................................................140A Theory of Price Setting Behavior.........................................................141The Data...................................................................................145Fit and Test...............................................................................145Pitfalls...................................................................................147Examine the Results and Predict............................................................150Inflation and the Fed......................................................................15111 More Things.............................................................................153Chapter Notes..............................................................................155Glossary...................................................................................159Poetry Credits.............................................................................161Index......................................................................................163

Chapter One

It's the Economy, Stupid

Election night at midnight: Boy Bryan's defeat. Defeat of western silver. Defeat of the wheat. Victory of letterfiles And plutocrats in miles With dollar signs upon their coats, Diamond watchchains on their vests and spats on their feet. Vachel Lindsay, from Bryan, Bryan, Bryan, Bryan

A common pastime in the United States every four years is predicting presidential elections....

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Verlag
Stanford University Press
Erscheinungsdatum
2002
Sprache
Englisch
ISBN 10 
0804745099
ISBN 13 
9780804745093
Einband
Gebundene Ausgabe
Anzahl der Seiten
184
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Verantwortliche Person
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