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In Defense of Japan

Stanford University Press

Contents

List of Tables and Figures..............................ixPreface.................................................xiList of Abbreviations...................................xv1 The Market-to-Military Trend..........................12 Evolution of Japan's Space Policy.....................243 The Players...........................................544 Launch Vehicles.......................................955 Satellites and Spacecraft.............................1306 Emerging Technologies.................................1737 In Defense of Japan...................................223Appendix I..............................................253Appendix II.............................................269Notes...................................................279Index...................................................363

Chapter One

THIS BOOK FOCUSES ON JAPAN'S CAPABILITIES IN SPACE, with a view to understanding their progression over time. In the face of repeated commercial disappointments and continuing scientific uncertainties, Japan has managed to develop and maintain an indigenous space industry-one that today marks it as a military space power. Certainly, these developments in the industry have taken place in plain sight of the public within a steadily advancing civilian space program. Were all this part of a long-term coherent national strategy, of course, it would be understandable and perhaps play a part in the current debates refashioning our understanding of Japanese grand strategy. Inconveniently for the theorists, however, Japan's commitment to the space industry long predates the very recent formulation of anything like a coherent national strategy, which came with the passage of Japan's first ever Basic Space Law in 2008, and the subsequent Basic Space Plan in 2009.

How, then, can we understand the long-term and significant commitment the country has made to space? How do we begin to understand the shift from what we call the market-to-the military in space developments? This latter question is all the more important because the new Basic Space Law matters in a fundamental and transformative way. It means that Japan's space policy has officially transitioned from one that exists only for peaceful purposes (a distinct definition that originally limited Japan from the development of any space technology that could be used for military purposes) to one with a strong-and, at long last, visible-emphasis on national security and the use of military space as a critical component of Japan's strategic defense.

Important answers lie in the market. To be clear, the market was the driver not because of corporate success, but because of corporate setbacks. Through a conjunction of historical accidents rather than overarching purposeful design, corporations found their choices narrowing over time. With investments already in the commercial space industry that were not turning a profit, corporations looked to salvage or bolster their bottom lines by pushing their allies in the government to develop military space projects. Because of the unusual prevalence of dual-use technology in the space industry, this could be eco nomically profitable and, as it turned out, politically attractive and legitimately possible over time as Japan faced rising external security challenges. These elements make up the essence of the market-to-military trend. In the meantime, through small twists and turns, the strategy of militarizing Japanese space assets-as observable through formal laws, institutions, reports, plans, policies, and so on-continues to reflect the economic interests and especially capabilities of the private makers of space technology.

Why might a focus on space development be important at all? This is a dual-use sector, with assets that yield both civilian and military value and that are difficult to distinguish neatly across these very dimensions. Whether right or wrong, desirable or not, governments and militaries around the world increasingly mark space as a strategic asset and see it as a primary provider and enabler of of war-fighting capabilities. For most of the postwar era, because of tightly held constraints on the kinds of technology it could develop for space use, Japan never remotely hinted at the militarization of its space program. By this, we mean the recognition, value, and use of space assets for military, or national security, purposes. In the context of space-based military capabilities, we follow the key mission areas identified by the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff as well as the United States Air Force Space Command (AFSPC). These include the abilities of a government to provide space support (i.e., to be able to get to and maneuver in space with functioning launch vehicles and spacecraft) and space force enhancement (i.e., to be able to increase the combat and success potential of a combat force). Both of these have long been seen without controversy, at least outside Japan, as force multipliers in that the technology increases the potential of traditional forces across a range of operations. But then there is the possibility of weaponization of space assets, which has also been carefully excised from mention in Japan's civilian space program. This takes us into the nebulous-and, we believe, largely indistinguishable-realm of space control and counterspace (i.e., to be able to reap advantages of space assets while others cannot through surveillance, protection, prevention, and negation); and also space force application (i.e., to be able to overtly engage in weaponization), which is highly controversial in terms of cost and effectiveness in the long run.

The dimensions above are certainly relevant to an analysis of Japan's space developments, and this is essentially what we undertake in this book. The market- to- military trend in Japan's space sector is very much in keeping with worldwide trends, which showcase the importance of land, naval, air, and increasingly space, as dominant theaters of operations. As the most prominent example, since 2001, there has been a corresponding concern at the highest echelons of the U.S. government about protecting the nation's ever-burgeoning reliance on space assets for both commercial and, especially, military purposes-a trend we will show is also reflected in Japan's case in successive stages and across technologies. Other observers have of course provided commentaries on the shifting priorities of Japanese space policy from the late 1990s onward, foreseeing either a continuing and deepening national security role or an opportunity to be managed by major space players like the United States. To date, however, detailed analyses of the concomitant space systems-rockets and missiles, satellites and spacecraft, guidance, reentry, command, control systems, and so on-needed for Japan to develop an in de pen dent strategic military capability have not been available.

We take steps in this general direction, with the goal of showing the range of systems Japan has and is developing with its space technologies that can be used for its national defense goals. From a global perspective, this is hardly controversial. The fact is space is not a true sanctuary from military activity by governments around the...