Research, Policy and Negotiations and Resolving the Palestinian Refugee Problem

Rex Brynen and Roula El-Rifai

Four core assumptions about the Palestinian refugee issue underpin much of what this book is about. First, as editors, we believe that the refugee issue will not somehow go away. The forced displacement and continued involuntary exile of the Palestinian people is a core element of Palestinian identity, a source of continuing injustice and a key component of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Achievement of a just and lasting Israeli–Palestinian peace will require that the issue be resolved. Second, we hold the view that if peace is ever to be achieved in the coming decades, it will be achieved through negotiations and will likely be based on some version of a two-state paradigm. Third, we consider that negotiations are facilitated by making policy-relevant research and analysis available to all of the key stakeholders, so as to inform the positions which they adopt and the choices that they make. Fourth – and closely related to the third point – we would also suggest that the sustainability of an agreement is likely to be enhanced if it is based on solid principles, good data, productive understanding, adequate resources and appropriate mechanisms. The key purpose of this volume, therefore, is to advance the prospects for an eventual resolution of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict by offering a thorough analysis of the various issues and challenges that any future negotiations on the refugee issue will face.

That being said, there are a great many things that this volume does not assume. We certainly do not assume that successful permanent status negotiations are likely to happen any time soon. On the contrary, we tend to be rather pessimistic on that score, given a combination of Palestinian political divisions, a hardening of Israeli positions, rapidly-changing conditions on the ground, an uncertain regional environment and faltering diplomatic leadership from the international community.

We also do not assume that the negotiating frameworks and approaches that have been adopted in the past will necessarily be those that will be used in the future. Local, regional and even international circumstances are constantly changing. Achieving peace through a single agreement that resolves all permanent status issues may no longer be feasible, although partial, interim and transitional deals would contain (as the early Oslo era demonstrated) dangers all of their own. The two-state paradigm might itself even need to undergo some reconceptualization, especially as continued Israeli occupation and settlement of the Palestinian territories creates new obstacles to peace.

Despite this, we believe that the concept of a 'one-state' solution would pose great challenges. If the two sides have been unable thus far to settle their differences on the basis of political separation, it is hard to imagine how some form of unification would be easier – especially given the fundamental attachment of the overwhelming majority of Israeli Jews to preserving Israel as a Jewish state and the commitment of most Palestinians to achieving a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. We also believe it is unlikely that the future of the Palestinian territories can be resolved through some sort of political condominium with Jordan, as some right-wing Israeli commentators have suggested. Permanent occupation within a system that continues to deny Palestinians basic political rights is also not viable in the long term, but for the time being, it seems to be tolerated by Israelis and the international community alike.

Indeed, it is the tragic combination outlined above – a refugee issue that will continue to be of importance, coupled with an uncertain political future in which diplomatic prospects seem dim – that gives rise to the contents and approach of this volume. In the chapters that follow, expert contributors have been asked to address each of the major aspects of the refugee issue. The topics covered include designing appropriate implementation mechanisms; the future role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in implementing an agreement; questions of return, repatriation and residency; the attitudes of host countries; refugee compensation/ reparations; the question of claims by Jewish refugees; absorption and development; moral acknowledgement and other 'intangibles'; managing refugee expectations; and end of claims. Contributors are not offering one single diagnosis or set of recommendations. Rather, they explore the interests and concerns of all sides, synthesize earlier and ongoing research, and suggest a broad menu of possible policy options. Our hope is to provide analysis that will be of lasting value, flexible enough to remain relevant despite future changes of actors, circumstances and negotiating frameworks.

Research and Negotiations on the Refugee Issue, 1991–2012

The value of offering an overview and synthesis of key policy issues and policy-relevant research is heightened by the particular way in which the work of scholars and non-governmental institutions on the refugee issue has – and has not – affected negotiating processes in the past.

Prior to the start of the peace process in the early 1990s, research on resolution of the refugee issue was rather limited. The various political sensitivities and taboos associated with the issue also limited the ways in which it was addressed. The historical narratives of the two sides stood in stark opposition to each other. Palestinian refugee advocates emphasized rights, grievances and historical injustices, but tended to pay much less attention to questions of negotiation approaches, trade-offs and mechanisms. Few Israeli scholars addressed the refugee issue at all, although the work of Israeli revisionist historians did begin to cast new light on the degree of forced displacement that had taken place from 1947–49. Very few Israeli policymakers gave the issue much thought – it was, in many ways,...