The Case for Contraction and Convergence

Aubrey Meyer

I was born in the UK in 1947. I grew up in South Africa in the 'apartheid era' after the Second World War. 'Unity is Strength' was the motto of the then White Nationalist government of the country, yet 'Separate Development' was their decreed strategy. Even to a child, the segregation – or 'apartheid' – under this unity was a political oxymoron. This divided and asymmetric state made the Beloved Country weak for the lack of unity. This lesson now applies to our beloved but divided planet. Change is inevitable. May it be moderated for the better, even as we integrate cost and benefits of 'development' in the struggle to avoid the worst of global warming and climate change.

Early on my interest was focused by music. By the time I was 21, I was making my living playing and writing music in Europe. Still under this influence by the age of 40, I had become a parent and also very scared by the deeply asymmetric politics of global warming and climate change. There was nowhere to escape this. I became involved in efforts to correct these trends and 20 years on I am still. To musicians integration is everything. How music and musicians fit together, how we make the shared energy work to make music, is all about intelligent time measurement and design. Though creatively alive, music is very precise about counting. Timing and tuning to shared reference points are fundamental to the power of live music. It was not obvious to me when I was younger that principle precedes practice, and that this has both timeless stability and political relevance.

A current example of this is the East West Diwan Orchestra. It was started in 1999 by the late Edward Said and Daniel Barenboim for children of Arab and Jewish families in the conflicts of the Middle East. The young players' attraction to music makes it possible for them to come together as equals from two sides of a conflict into the shared framework of music making. The Diwan Orchestra sets a global standard of peaceful cooperation, based on the musical principles of measuring and common reference points, and of working together despite differences, to produce something beautiful.

CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE LEADS PRACTICE WITH PRINCIPLE

The contemporary example of the East West Diwan Orchestra actually suggests a model for a global framework of reconciliation and ecological recovery in the years ahead. If, as a species, we are to avoid dangerous climate change and survive, we need to start counting from fundamentals with the core resonance of reconciliation. In practice this means keeping within the precautionary limits and using the pragmatic rationale of counting people's rights under these limits as equal.

This does not mean we are all equal. It means that to survive, we are all equally and collectively rationed by the limits that preserve us. The resonance of this in the text of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is 'common but differentiated responsibilities'.

Thus, the objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilise rising greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a value that is safe, based on principles of both precaution and equity. The UNFCCC necessarily adheres to contraction and convergence, first proposed by the London-based Global Commons Institute (GCI) in 1990 (see below). Contraction and Convergence is a policy framework that combines the precautionary principle and the principle of equity. The framework was explicitly approved by the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2003 with the statement that 'the objective of the UNFCCC inevitably requires Contraction and Convergence'.

We can restate the above key clauses of the UNFCCC as follows. Let us regard humanity, crudely, as being composed of two groups: high-energy users and low-energy users. The use of energy is directly related to carbon dioxide emissions (and that of other greenhouse gases, or GHGs). All of us share the common goal of atmospheric stabilisation, but some of us need to do more than others. Hence 'common but differentiated responsibilities'. Since the low carbon emitting nations can still increase their emissions before they reach the sustainable average, 'the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs'. By implication, then, the high carbon emitting nations must contract fastest and greatest: 'the developed country Parties must take the lead in combating climate change'. Obviously the goal is sustainable emissions levels – so these two sides of the discussion inevitably lead to convergence. The lock opens and the water rushes out until both sides are level.

Many individuals, organisations and, indeed, nations have concurred that Contraction and Convergence (C&C) is the necessary policy framework that stems from the UNFCCC agreement, structured so that we are all in tune with each other, and in time to save the planet. What exactly then does C&C propose?

THE PRINCIPLE OF CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE

C&C is a global climate policy framework, formulated on the basis of equal rights, and has been proposed to the United Nations ever since 1990 by the GCI, as a means to achieving the UNFCCC climate change objectives.

C&C calculates a global carbon budget for what is deemed a 'safe' climate, e.g. limiting global temperature rise by 2 C. This enables greenhouse gas reduction scenarios to be calculated in the process of contraction. The global carbon budget can be shared by international negotiation, along a timeline with the final goal of achieving equal rights: this is the process of convergence. The commitment to a global treaty based on this negotiation can enable policies...