Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (Wiley Trading Advantage (Hardcover)) - Softcover

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Robert R. Prechter. Jr. is author of several books on the markets and editor of two monthly forecasting publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and Global Market Perspective. The Hulbert rating service reports that The Theorist exceeded the performance of the Wilshire 5000 over 131/2 year period ending December 31, 1993, while being exposed to market risk only 50% of the time. EWT has won Hard Money Digest's "Award of Excellence" twice and Timer Digest's "Timer of the Year" twice, the only newsletter to do so. In 1984, Mr Prechter set an all time record in the United States Trading Championship by returning 444.4% in a monitored real-money options account in the four month contest period. In December 1989, Financial News Network named him "Guru of the Decade". In 1990-1991, Mr Prechter serves as President of the Market Technicians Association in its twenty-first year.
Mr Prechter's latest venture is Elliott Wave International, which provides monthly and intraday analysis on stock markets, currencies, interest rates, commodities and social trends to institutional and private investors around the world.
Mr. Prechter attended Yale University on a full scholarship and graduated in 1971 with a degree in psychology. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department in New York, where his original work with the Wave Principle led to a small but loyal following, introduction to A.J. Frost and ultimately this book.

A.J. Frost C.F.A., a graduate of Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, started his career as a legal accountant. He achieved his objective on being admitted to the Ontario Institute of Chartered Accountants in 1934 and on his call to the Ontario Bar in 1937. In 1959, he was elected a fellow in the Institute for distinguished service to the accountancy profession. He served as Chairman of the National Capital commissions (Canada) for two years and later sat on the bench as a member of the Tax Appeal Board, Tax Review Board and Anti-Inflation Appeal tribunal. He has handed down many decisions in the field of income tax law. During his career, Mr Frost served on two university councils and the boards of several Canadian corporations.
In 1960, Mr. Frost became a partner of the late Hamilton Bolton, who introduced him ot the Elliott Wave Principle. After Bolton's death in 1967, he wrote two Elliott Wave Supplements for the firm of Bolton-Tremblay, the editors of the Bank Credit Analyst. In 1977, Mr Frost delivered a speech on the Elliott Wave Principle before the Market Technicians Associations. There he met Mr. prechter, whom he found to have remarkably compatible ideas despite their separation by two generations and national boundary. Mr. Frost provided weekly market commentary on Financial New Network and was one of the most frequently requested speakers for meetings of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.

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"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle."
―Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

"Gold and Silver Today wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human experience. If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading."
―Gold & Silver Today

"This book is extremely well done. It is clear, brief and bold...by far the most useful and comprehensive for both the beginner and the veteran."
―William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt. Co.

"An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of Elliott Wave theory could be written."
―Donald J. Hoppe, Business and Investment Analysis

"...A top-drawer reference for serious technical analysts....all the nuts and bolts necessary to do their own Elliott Wave assembly."
―Futures Magazine

"Chapter Three is the best description of Fibonacci numbers we've seen in print and that alone is worth the price of the book."
―Janes Dines, The Dines Letter

"In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the first time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the first book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this book."
―The Professional Investor

"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced that it should be read by and and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities."
―Market Decisions

"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable stick market prediction of all time."
―James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review; Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of Excellence

Aus dem Klappentext

Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Robert R. Prechter, Jr. is author of several books on the markets and editor of two monthly forecasting publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and Global Market Perspective. The Hulbert rating service reports that The Theorist exceeded the performance of the Wilshire 5000 over the 131/2 year period ending December 31, 1993, while being exposed to market risk only 50% of the time. EWT has won Hard Money Digest's "Award of Excellence" twice and Timer Digest's "Timer of the Year" twice, the only newsletter to do so. In 1984, Mr. Prechter set an all time record in the United States Trading Championship by returning 444.4% in a monitored real-money options account in the four month contest period. In December 1989, Financial News Network named him "Guru of the Decade". In 1990-1991, Mr. Prechter served as President of the Market Technicians Association in its twenty-first year.

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Basic Tenets

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transition, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others' behaviour. This feedback loop is governed by man's social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity. The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement. More specifically, a wave is any one of the patterns that naturally occur, as described in the rest of this chapter.

The Five-Wave Pattern

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.

R.N. Elliott did not specifically say that there is only one overriding form, the "five-wave" pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it.

Wave Mode

There are two modes of wave development: motive and corrective. Motive waves have a five-wave structure, while corrective waves have a three-wave structure or a variation thereof. Motive mode is employed by both the five-wave pattern of Figure 1-1 and its same-directional components, i.e., waves 1, 3 and 5. Their structures are called "motive" because they powerfully impel the market. Corrective mode is employed by all countertrend interruptions, which include waves 2 and 4 in Figure 1.1. Their structures are called "corrective" because each one appears as a response to the preceding motive wave yet accomplishes only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress it achieved. Thus, the two modes are fundamentally different, both in roles and in their construction, as will be detailed throughout this chapter.