Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles (Wiley Finance) - Hardcover

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA is Vice President and Economist at Mitsubishi Bank in New York. Previously, he worked as an economist at Paine Webber, Chemical Bank, and Merrill Lynch. He regularly writes for Cycles, the magazine of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. His earlier work on industry cycles earned him the National Association of Business Economists' A.G. Abramson award for an "outstanding contribution to the professional literature in the field of business economics."

PHILIP A. KLEIN is Professor of Economics at Pennsylvania State University and is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. He has consulted on business cycle indicators for OECD, the EEC, and the World Bank. He has written widely on business cycles and has worked for many years with Geoffrey H. Moore. He is a Research Associate at the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

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Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability.

No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you’ll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein’s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you’ll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability―ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America’s economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict:

• Industry cycles―including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool
• Regional business cycles―including a survey of regional indicators
• International business cycles―with an international business cycle chronology
• Inflation cycles―plus “12 little-known facts” about this complex cycle
• Financial cycles―covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles
• Stock market cycles―with advice on achieving more disciplined trading

Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making―and profit margin―depend on accurately assessing today’s often uncertain economic climate.

“Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn.” ―Samuel D. Kahan Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc.

“The definitive book on the most important and enduring feature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle.” ―Alfred L. Malabre, Jr. Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal

“Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere.” ―Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance The University of Texas at El Paso

“This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy.” ―Victor Zarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University of Chicago

Aus dem Klappentext

Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Our understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein?s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to asses, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability, and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century?s most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles?the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles?including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory. With this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book?s comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America?s economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history?in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques?if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability. No forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.