Decision Analysis for Management Judgment - Softcover

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Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making. George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

• A new chapter brings together enhancements of the simple multi-attribute rating method (SMART) and alternatives, such as the AHP, Even-Swaps, and Macbeth.
• Chapter 2 now includes topics like decoy effects and the effect of emotions on decisions.
• The merits of snap decisions and choice architectures are assessed
• There is extended discussion of scenario planning, expert systems and linear models.
• New sections cover prediction markets, calibration of probabilities, and implementing the Delphi method.
• Includes new web material such as cases and multiple choice questions.

The book is intended for MBA students and business and management undergraduates who are not specialist mathematicians. It will also appeal to practising managers. The companion website can be found at: www.wileyeurope.com/college/goodwin