An analysis, description and historical account of how bubbles form in credit and currency markets and on how these eventually burst.
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Recommended by Fortune Magazine
'A remarkable book that anticipated the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008.' - Long Range Planning
'The Age of Turbulence' has been characterized by a series of bubbles and subsequent crashes in credit and asset markets around the globe. This experience has sorely tested the conventional concepts of efficiency and rational expectations widely used in financial market analysis. In this book, a new analytical framework is developed, based on the path-breaking concept of temperature swings in the market-place. A rise or fall of temperature away from the usual temperature zone is defined by an increase in the prevalence of soft irrationality and a decrease in homogeneity of expectations.
The author argues persuasively that both macro-economic policy-makers and portfolio investors have often failed to perceive the extent of temperature rise in credit markets and the knock-on impact on many related asset markets – including real estate, private equity, currencies, and ultimately human talent. This is demonstrated across a range of historical and contemporary market experience, including the global credit bubbles of the late 1920s and late 2000s.
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