Risk-Based Reliability Analysis and Generic Principles for Risk Reduction - Hardcover

Über die Autorin bzw. den Autor

Prof. Todinov’s background is Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science. He holds a PhD and a higher doctorate (DEng) from the University of Birmingham. His name is associated with key results in the areas: Reliability and Risk, Flow networks, Probability, Statistics of inhomogeneous media, Theory of phase transformations, Residual stresses and Probabilistic fatigue and fracture.

M.Todinov pioneered research on: the theory of repairable flow networks and networks with disturbed flows, risk-based reliability analysis - driven by the cost of system failure, fracture initiated by flaws in components with complex shape, reliability dependent on the relative configurations of random variables and optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximal risk reduction.

A sample of M.Todinov’s results include: introducing the hazard stress function for modelling the probability of failure of materials and deriving the correct alternative of the Weibull model; stating a theorem regarding the exact upper bound of properties from multiple sources and a theorem regarding variance of a distribution mixture; the formulation and proof of the necessary and sufficient conditions of the Palmgren-Miner rule and Scheil’s additivity rule; deriving the correct alternative of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation and stating the dual network theorems for static flows networks and networks with disturbed flows.

Von der hinteren Coverseite

This is the first book covering risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reduction of technical risk.

Traditionally, reliability analyses have been oriented towards selecting the system with the largest reliability. On the basis of counterexamples, we demonstrate that selecting the more reliable system does not necessarily mean selecting the system with the smaller losses from failures! An underlying theme in the book is the basic principle for a risk-based design: the larger the cost of failure associated with a component, the larger its minimum necessary reliability level. Even identical components should be designed to different reliability levels if their failures are associated with different losses. Accordingly, a new measure of risk, based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure has been introduced. The corresponding theoretical framework, models and algorithms are also introduced, which form the foundations of a reliability analysis linked with the potential losses from failures.

For the purpose of determining the potential losses, discrete event-driven simulators are presented capable of tracking the potential losses for systems with complex topology, composed of a large number of components. The simulators are based on new, very efficient algorithms for system reliability analysis of systems comprising thousands of components.

Important underlying themes in the book are the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles and techniques are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time.

The book also features the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape caused by flaws, expressed with a single simple equation.